stocks to watch on 18th Dec

Tomorrow is a pressure date for market as per astronomy and election result. I expect a huge volatile day.

I expect good movements in below stocks. Please do not trade on these stocks based on my post.

1. Hindalco 

Possible NR4 breakout. 200 MA and 50 MA  @230 is a strong resistance.

Buy:223
Sell:215

2. ACC

Strong MA resistance 1460 to 1480
Sell  1420

3. Hindustan Unilver 

Sell 1804

4. LT  

10 MA resistance 1414,
Buy 1414
Sell 1372

5. Axis bank 

Price action indicates a strong breakout possible

50 MA support     598
10 MA resistance  621

Buy
Sell 592
Buy 610.2

How to do we planning  trading for Hinndalco intarday

Hindalco

Sell 215
SL 223
Target 208

Nature of trade : High probable trade
Trade duration : Intraday
Total capital 5 lakh
Total risk for 10th Dec : 1 % of 500000 i.e. 5000
Number of trades : 2
Risk per trade : 2500


Number of shares to be sold = 312
Margin required 4000
Total value 67000

Trade decisions : 

If sell trade is favorable, will book 100 shares at 213 , 300 shares at 211 and 100 shares at 208 . Will do partial profit as sell position can not be carried over.

Estimated profit for sell = 2100

For buy trade , target will be 8 points. Will keep the buy trade for two days.

Price Tine Square of Nifty On Important Astronomical Dates

Nifty perfectly followed Gann Price time square. Nifty showed great momentum on 5th , 12th and 20th November  where price time squaring  happened.

Nifty honored all critical price levels during its upward journey as published on Nifty trading idea

10431

10483

10535

10587

10639

10691

10743

10795

10847

Now, possible support levels for Nifty are

11694

11642

11590

11538

11486

11434

11382

Nifty option suggests support at 10500 and resistance at 10800

My trade plan for tomorrow ( 20th Nov 2018)  1st half based on technical

1.  If Nifty goes below 10640, will short nifty with initial target 10600.

2.  If Nifty cross above 10743,  will go long for initial target 10795

I will create spread in second half  considering weekend.

Astrological view 

Tomorrow Ketu star day. Moon sublord is Jupiter till 111:22 and Saturn will be sublord till 3 PM.  Jupiter and Mars formed a negative aspect which statistically indicates a strong bearish tone.  Moon is also in "kishore Aswastha"
As per my understanding , astrological position does not support strong positive movement.

Gann Price Time square calculation based previous range and duration

• 10774  high on 19th Nov 2018
• 10030 low on  26th Oct 2018

Possible dates                               Possible Prices

20-11-2018                                    10671
23-11-2018                                    10568
28-11-2018                                    10466
05-12-2018                                    10364       
14-12-2018                                    10262


Nifty low was 10562 on 21st Nov

Stock trade plan for the week of 16th November 2018

Review of  last week Nifty performance 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Post market update:

1. Nifty opened in a positive note

2. Nifty witnessed profit booking after  solid opening

3. Nifty movement picked up around 245 PM while ASC was Pisces as mentioned in this article yesterday.

4. Nifty touched 200 DMA and closed at 10764. Nifty gives a good movement on a day when price and time squared. 

I exited all my positions in Nifty. Will enter once today's high (10774) or low (10688) will brake on closing basis.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nifty gave good swing n 5th and 12th November. Nifty made low 10464 on 12th November whereas 10460 was a resistance as mentioned on 9th November.

Even volatility based calculation was showing probability of reaching 10700 was 35 % .

We able to capture Nifty movement based on Gann astrotrading methods.

Let us analyse possible Nifty movement for next week

1. Based on implied volatility Nifty has 32 % chance to touch 10800 and 17%  chance to hit 10500.
2. Next  price time square date is 20th November  and  possible target is around 10750  or 200 DMA.
3. 10740 zone will be a supply zone for Nifty. This a strong resistance of 50 DMA and 100 DMA

News which are supporting bullish sentiment in market

There are few good news  for capital market as crude price  cracked , USD INR return to 71/72 level which gives psychological comfort to FII/FPI, Domestic investors are still believing "Mutual Fund Sahi Hy" as they have invested huge cash with various MFs.

My technical view for Nifty  is positive for 19th November.

Astrological view of market

Saturn is star lord for 19th November

Asc for Nifty  is Sagittarius. Jupiter is lord of Sagittarius. Saturn is placed in Sagittarius.

Placement of other planets

• Sun mercury and Jupiter are in 12th house from Ascendant which is also the  house of expense. 
• Venus is at 11th house 
• Moon is placed at 4th house Pisces and it is Yuva awastha.   It is Jupiter house and has 5th aspect from Jupiter. Moon is at Saturn star. Overall moon is positive.
• Ketu is in second house which is not very positive.
• Mars is aspected by Saturn by its 3rd aspect 

Market might open strong but there might be some profit booking 

Around 11 AM Asc will be Ketu and some more profit booking will continue. This is will be a good buying opportunities.
Around 1 P.M Asc will be Capricon and mars will be in Asc.
Around 2:20 PM Pisces will be Asc.

We might witness  strong bullish sentiment in the market in second half.

Trade plan based Gann astro trading principle :

I will go long tomorrow with SL at 10640  for a   target 10750.

Shares with positive view

RIL. Bajaj finance, VEDL, Gail, Ibull Housing Finance

Shares might witness correction

Icicibank, Axisbank, Adani ports

Stock trade plan for 9th Nov

New year started with a positive not. 

As per price time square method of WD Gann possibles dates 5th Nov, 12th Nov and 20th Nov. Possible price targets are  10460, 10561, 10663

Niifty did met two price targets already. Nifty closed above 10561. Based on Gann Master Time Factor, Nifty should meet 3rd target 10663 by 9th or on 12th November. 

I will watch below stocks for 9th November  

Long : Axisbank, BPCL, Cipla and SBIN

Short  Tatamotor

My view market will witness profit booking next week 

Nifty on 5th November

This  will analyse probability of movement of Nifty from various point of views like political, astrological, astronomy ,  Gann price time square, volatility based movement and chart analysis.

Astrological 

Scorpio ascendant @915   to 950 - In scorpio, Mars is ruing and Ketu is exalted at Scorpio.  Mars
(29.4 degree) in Capricorn where it is exalted at 28 degree. Jupiter and mercury are in Scorpio where Jupiter got directional strength. Jupiter has 9th aspect on Rahu ( 120 degree aspect) so Rahu will have less negative impact on market. Sun and Venus is at Libra where Venus is ruling. Presence of venus will reduce "debiliated" impact of  sin at Libra.

Sagittarius  ascendant @915 to 1155 AM - Jupiter is ruling lord of Sagittarius.

Capricorn ascendant @1155 AM to 145 PM - Saturn is ruling.

Aquarius ascendant @145 PM to 322 PM - Saturn Ruling

Pisces ascendant @ 322PM 457 PM - Jupiter is ruling

Moon is at its own starlord. This condition moon is normally weak.

My view: Nifty will be strong in 1st two hours and will be weak in second half . It will be a high volatile day.

Political and news 

Statistics suggests that post midterm election,US market surges ahead. However, the situation might be tricky this year as sanction on Iran will impact Global economy adversely.

Volatility 

long build up noticed on Nifty and weekly upside target 10900 and downside target 10200

Gann Pricetime square

As per my last article on Nifty price time square, Nifty closed above 10460 and  close to next target 10561. We expect Nifty will complete next target 10663 on Monday morning before a corrective pull back on Monday.

Technical analysis

In weekly chart, Nifty took support on 100 w moving average and immediate resistance is 50 week moving average 10709.

Next price time square for Nifty

How to trade Nifty based Gann price time square?

Nifty completed price time square on last Friday as predicted by Gann calculation and astronomical calculation.

Let us check what should be the next possible range of Nifty

117151 3rd Sept  High
10030   26th Oct  Low

Based on price range possible dates where market will show impulsive movements

28-10-2018
30-10-2018
05-11-2018
12-11-2018
20-11-2018
14-12-2018
18-12-2018
30-12-2018
15-01-2019
04-02-2019
25-02-2019
19-03-2019

Nifty did face resistance at 10200 on 30th October . Today, Nifty showed strength and reached to next critical resistance level 10400 and closed at 10386.

Next critical resistance 10609 and support 10201

Nifty made an intermediate high 10701 on 17th Oct . Considering 10701 as recent high, and 10030 as recent low, Nifty completed  50%  pullback.  

Nifty need to close above 10701 to resume its upwards journey otherwise Nifty might slip below 10000.

Let us check how astronomy can help us to predict possible Nifty movement 

1st Nov , Thursday  market might be range bound to up 

2nd Nov, Friday might be a bearish day 

5th Nov, Monday might be a volatile and  bearish day 

I consulted Financial almanac by Tamilsandhi

What option chain reveals ?

Put writing happened at 10400, 10300 and 10200. However, put unwinding happened at 10500. We can infer market participants expects stable to bullish market for 1st November

What are the possible Gann price levels?

26 th October close price 10030 squared at 90 degree offset of 53 degree calendar days.

Based on last price time square future possible price ranges are

10258  At this price previous downtrend will over as per Gann rule
10359
10460
10561
10663

On 1st November Nifty spot closed at 10380. Hence, Nifty resumed its northward journey.

Long trade can be initiated with first target 10460 and stop loss 10359.  

My plan to trade nifty for Nov

sell 9600 put 10 lots
sell 11000 call 10 lots

Buy Nifty future  and stop loss buy ATM Nifty put. Hedge the position overnight not in business hours.

In future article, will discuss how astronomy can guide to improve the above  forecast of future price and time.

Does Nifty complete price time square?

W D Gann price time square is a critical calculation for trader. The key of the method, the calculation predicts possible reversal based on previous range and significant high and low.

Key important parameters 

Significant low  9952 made on 23rd February 2018
Significant high  11157 made on 3rd September 2018

Price range                       1799
Trading days elapsed           36
Calendar days elapsed         55

Price time square calculation can be accomplished in several ways.

I am discussing three simple methods here.

1. Find the price window using Gann square nine calculator and time window based on previous price range . The basis of this calculation is price = time * time 

Next possible PT square happen on

16-10-2018    Price closed near Gann static level and market witnessed great movement next  day
28-11-2018
10-01-2019

2. Price must reach a significant static Gann level on  natural square dates like 1, 4th, 25th , 36th and so on from 3rd September 2018.

19-09-2018      PT square happened as price closed vert near to 11237.  Market witnessed a volatile
                         movement next day

22-10-2018       Nifty witnessed  volatile movement but no trend change happen


3. Converting price and range to degree and find the closest match

 Nifty closed at 10030 . Degree equivalent of 10030 is 161 which squared with previous time range in calendar days i.e. 164 days.

If there is reversal, downtrend will continue . Following price levels might work as support 10001  9951 , 9901 , 9851  , 9851  , 9801 and major resistance will be 10201.

In next article , I will discuss on astronomical calculation for possible price time square.

Monthly income pan update -26102018

Today Nifty formed a bearish candle and heading towards 9950 support. Gann followers predicting low near 9826 on 29th October. This is 10 year cycle completion from last crash.

Please follow my trade journal to know why 29th October is so important.

Market reached to a bottom around 930 AM and I need to adjust my position to increase my profitability and reduce option long position to avoid weekend theta decay.

Click the link to know more on my monthly income plan using option trading

Update after 26th Oct market closure: Some legs covered today that resulted a profit  of 4200.

My view about Nifty 

Business cycle follow movement of moon north node. Moon north node is now in cancer. Based on past market behavior it indicates long term bear trend.

Nifty is already below its 200 MA

As an option trader, I follow weekly cycle and nifty just took support on 100 week moving average. Next support will be 200 week morning average.  

Current positions

Long  Nifty Dec   10000 PE     600
Long  Nifty Dec   9000   PE       75
Short  Nifty Nov  10200 CE       75
Short  Nifty Nov    9500 PE    1275
Nifty Future long

Greeks

Delta   15
Theta   1868
Vega    -1635
Gamma  -0.35

Theta/Vega = 1.15

Negative Gama will be profit if Nifty's southward journey.

Estimated PnL on expiry day 

With current volatility

9360     88000
9500    200000
10100   88000


Market view for 29th October : Market my witness gap up or gap down because day star is Rahu. Technically, emotion is very bearish.

RSI shows market is oversold so a  pull back to Fibo level 10600 is possible.

Adjustments:

• If market is going up, will add  Nifty long , square off 10200 CE
• If market is going down, square off 9800 PE and sell more call 

My target is to earn 8000 from this position and 4000 already credited. I expect I will meet the target on Monday itself.

Nifty view for November

My friend Bramesh published a thoughtful analysis on Nifty based on astrological events.

Monthly income plan for Nov expiry

When theory meets with practical - option strategy

I am working on a multi legged option strategy for November 2018. This is an experimental set up. I want  to experiment greek behaviors with time, volatility and news. I intentionally did not use any proven strategy like iron condor, Asymmetric iron condor. 

This is first time I deployed and managing  an option strategy. I am referring  Quantsapp for my position  Greeks .

Philosophy of this strategy:

1. Create a put calendar spread around 10000 PE. This is a low probability set up as this combination gives maximum profit around 10000 only. To convert the same to high probability set up, sold 10400 CE

2. Global equity market is in downtrend and trading below 200 DMA. So I have created a vertical spread with 9800 PE and 9500 CE.

3. I make one NF long to reduce overall negative delta of the position.

Strikewise position detail

Nifty Future long                     1 lot
Nifty Nov 9800 PE long          8 lot
Nifty Nov 9500 PE short         8 lot
Nifty Nov 10400  CE short     4 lot
Nifty Nov 10000 PE short       7 lot
Nifty Dec 10000 PE  long       5 lot


Greek values as per Quantsapp.

Delta       -69
Theta     1200.2
Vega        1504
Gamma  -0.21

Margin used

12 lakh and margin benefits 1.4 lakh

Expected return for next  8 days

Nifty      Estimated Return

9500            3400
9800          26100
10040        26500
10200        18000
10310        11340
10400          2000

Nifty spot is at 10124 on 25th Oct 2018 and today's Profit   ( -2500)


If I have out this money in bank , I would have got 5000 interest  per month post income tax  from the same capital. I need to target 10000 per month considering the risk involve in the strategy.

My target is to earn Rs. 8000 from this strategy in first month. My annual target is to double the capital by Dec 2020 using FnO strategy.

Adjustment 

1. Will convert this strategy a delta  neutral strategy tomorrow by adding another Nifty future. 
2.  Will do adjustment once nifty spot closed below 9800 or above 
3. Will maintain theta to vega ratio >40  
4. Will maintain gamma near zero or little positive
5. Will book loss if premium of short position gets doubled 
6. Will book profit in short position  if 50 % credit realized.
7. Will exit if position loss reach 10,000

Exit rules 

1. Will exit once the strategy earns 8000
2. Will exit 26th November  to avoid Gamma risk & quick theta decay for long positions in expiry week
3. Will exit if strategy takes more than 13 lakh margin

Update on my monthly income plan  on 26th Oct

Trade plan for 24-10-2018

How I am planning to trade in November expiry?

I will consider followings macro economic conditions to understand the probability of more deep correction.

1. GDP growth of India
2. Inflation
3. Rating by external agency
4. USD INR rate
5. Company performance of Q2
6. Forthcoming elections

My exiting NF & BNF trade will continue tomorrow.

I will look for long opportunity inn Nifty and Reliance.

trade performance for 23 rd Oct 2018

I am working on myself to shield myself from the common saying that  "Investors tend to sell winning investments while holding on to their losing investments". Trading in a falling market is really scary.

I accumulated Ibull Housing stock fr last few days and finally I exited with mo profit no loss condition. It is very difficult to trade in a volatile market for a new trader like me.

An interesting video from  Mr.  Nitin Bhatia on Nifty correction


Three good things happened in last two weeks

1. I completed my simple program in excel to get buy and sell signal based on EOD data. This model is based  candle stick reversal pattern along with 10, 50 and 200 MA. I am working to include IV, HV and open interest to make the program more robust.

2. I completed a simple back test software and this program helps to evaluate various modifications of my program

3. I attended Quantsapp option symposium.  I learned various nuances of option selling.

I will resume stock trading post expiry this month.

What wheels in the sky is telling  for tomorrow?

Tomorrow full moon.  Indian market can be bottomed out tomorrow. 

Nifty position 

My current deployed option strategy has a Created range from 9800 to 10400
Theta to Vega ratio 40

Possible adjustment, if Nifty brakes 10000 level, will move 10000 PE to 9500 PE as this might trigger a bigger fall.

Nifty buy 10175 and target 10225, Nifty sell 10115 to 10080 

Banknifty position 

My strategy of vertical spread week option is giving me good result. I set up a risky strategy for tomorrow where I sold two 24500 PE and bought only one 24500 put for next week.

Banknifty buy 25052  and   sell 24900 , target 100 point and SL 100 point

Stocks where some actions might happen on 24th Oct : Reliance, CanBank, ONGC based on chart.

I set up a vertical spread for Reliance expecting a quick recovery of 50 odd points  as short covering before and immediately after expiry.

Trade journal for 19th Oct

Indian market is in tight bear grip. It reminds me of 19th October 1987.  Some brokers are seeing the ghost of 29th October 1929.

And, why not ?

The foretasted dates of WD Gann  in 1929 has close similarity with Nifty performance in 2018.  This also coincides with 90 years  cycle.

source: internet

This is a challenging time for stock investors and arguably fertile time for shorting futures. I expect market will give up move once PCR goes in .08 to ,06 range. Though the increase of IV and HV together in last two days indicates more fear in market.

I set up NF strategy considering a small bullish movement in early next week.

Positional stock trading:

I am  buying Nifty shares slowly fr each drop of 50 to 100 points.

Nifty

Sold 9800 PE for Nov and bought 9500 Nov put.
Sold 10500 CE and bought 10700 CE

Position greeks

delta       16
Vega    1579
Theta    -384
Gamma  .06

Will buy NF above 10334 and sell below 10273. Target 40 points with 2 lots.


Banknifty 

Bought 25000PE
Sold  2*24500 PE

Maxpain for BNF 25200

maximum put unwind happen from 25000 and still OI is around 690 k.
750 K is maximum OI  is at 24500

upside brake even 24950  so will buy intraday future above 25155

My stock trading performance in last 4 weeks and plan ahead

I completed my first month stock trading as an independent trader. 

Good news is I made profit.I started this challenge with 200K INR with a target to earn 4000 INR post all operational expenses.

My current equity is 223243 

This is indeed a motivating performance as I achieved in a  most challenging time while INR is depreciating fast, crude price is moving north, US-China trade war is getting more intense, possible US sanction on India for dealing with Russia for arms, growing political unrest in India.

My plan for next month

1. BNF option trading with daily target 1000

2. Using Jeep option strategy to earn  2% per month.

3. Building a portfolio with top 10 companies on Nifty and accumulating 5 high dividend yielding stocks.

My trade rules

Banknifty is very volatile now. I will short OTM call and put with almost equal premium.
'
Entry rule -  Based on current option chain, my plan is to short 24000 PE and 25900 CE. I will get around 120 Rs premium.

Exit rule:

1. Will exit if premium is is more than 110% in any side. Will put tight SL on otherside.
2.  Will exit if combo gets 20% of total premium received.
3. Will exit at 3 PM

Total margin required : 130000 at my brokers platform

Total brokerage           : 100

Premium received       : 4340

Target profit                : 700 to 1000

This is a risky strategy so SL need to be placed to protect capital.


Nifty :  Will deploy vertical put spread

 My current  position is with multiple lots

Buy 9600 PE of November
Sell 10200 PE of November
Buy 10000 PE o November

current profit 6503

Current Greek of the strategy :
Delta  -14
Theata  -411
Gamma   .008
Vega   2091

This strategy will do well for quick downward movement.

Performance of the strategy

Downward adjustment :

10400  , close one short put and sell a new put at 9800
at 10300 , close 50% of 10200 short put and add at 9800
At 10200 , will buy 9500 put

Upside adjustment 

will buy one lot NF future once NS  moves above 10480 and stays there for 15 min


Nifty  is in clear downtrend as it is forming lower highs and lower lows and volatility will remain high.

Stocks for 19th Oct

Short term swing trading:

• TechM   
• Adaniport
• Torrentpower
• KPIT

Positional 

Will accumulate HDFC, HDFC bank, India bull housing finance, Infosys, TCS  and Reliance industry for fall of 1 ATR

trading performance 12th Oct

Indian market is highly volatile. Indian VIX is hovering around 20.

I did paper trading for some times in recent past but those were low volatile time. I started my trading in market during blood bath. USD/INR and crude oil price is directly impacting Indian economy.  US sanction on Iran oil and trade war with China is creating an uncomfortable situation in Global business.

I incurred good loss in Nifty future trading due to large fall on 11th Oct. I made good profit Nifty and kept my position overnight just to face black Thursday.

Yesterday and today,  I took positions in Axis bank and Balarampur chini. I made total profit  5900 profit after brokerage and tax.

My current equity 223043

What went good

My EOD analysis on stock picking has high success rate.
OTM straddle and vertical spread option strategy is working as per my expectation
However, my trading in Nifty is not happening properly.

What went wrong?

Need to work on trade plan creation and execute the plan. The trader has to create trade plan based on his own personality and position management skill.

Lesson learned 

Trader can still work on tips but trading on burrowed trade plan is suicidal for trader.

stock trading performance for 10th Oct 2018

I have bullish view on Nifty because

1. Nifty spot touched 10201 which is 315 degree at Gann square nine
2. Nifty spot took support from S3 ( 10277) thrice
3. Nifty forms higher high and lower lows in last three days which is bullish sign
4.RSI reached near 20 from where Nifty always bounced back in past
5. PCR ratio is indicating a bullish view
6. Nifty is close to its moving average support in weekly chart
7. Several key companies of Nifty 50 is trading near or below 200 DMA

Nifty 

Current position :

Nifty long                      4 lots
Nifty 10000 PE short    8 lots
Nifty 10200 PE long     6 lots
Nifty 10600 CE short    2 lots

overall position is delta positive and vega positive.

Banknifty

I did some crazy trading today. Need to work to encash this kind super bullish move. Looks like its a huge short covering rally and we might see next long builld up rally.

I started short 24000 PE and at the end I shored 25200 PE. Made some good profit. No position is open and will do expiry trading zade lizard option strategy

Stocks

I closed Reliance capital and Ajanta Pharma. Total profit 1250 


My current equity  217143

stock trade set up 8th october

How I performed today?

Positional trading - I started building my portfolio. Today I bought 50 shares on RIL and HDFC bank.

How my monthly option trading progressed

I did adjustment today. I moved down put sell from 10000 to 9800 considering high volatility of market. If market moves up fast, there will be quick loss in time value due to delta and theta. This will be more profitable if market goes up as in this scenario, implied volatility will reduce.

My new positions:

9800 PE Short    Quantity  450
9600 PE  long     Quantity  450
10500 CE short   Quantity  450
10800 CE long    Quantity  750

Profit made 1000 rs

Plan for tomorrow : I will buy Nifty once it brakes today's high in spot. Market should move up in second half.

I traded not as per my plan. This is crime for a trader. 

Market never forgives undisciplined trader.

How my daily trading on BNF 

I did well initially. I sold 23800 PE and 25000 PE and booked profit 3278.
However, I did speculative trading. I sold 24700 CE and bought 24800 CE. This position is in loss of around 5000.

This is a bad trading as astrologically BNF expected to bounce back in second half.

Will take a long position in BNF or short double the number of put short or sell more OTM calls.

This option sell position will be benefited once market did mean reversion in volatility.

Plan for tomorrow 

Market made a good recovery today and volatility crashed at some time in second half.

My stock pics for tomorrow

1. Ambuja cement

2. Reliance capital

3. Gail

4. TataChemical


After market update 

As per my astrological calculation market showed signs of recovery in second half but bulls failed to maintain the gain.

Stocks

Intraday order 

Tatachemical                  600
Ambuja cement            (256)
Gail                               (91)

Profit  after brokerage and taxes (47)


Positional order 

Reliance capital          - Target to exit with 2 % profit and will do once average if it goes down 

BNF 

Today I created credit spread in both sides and made profit.

Total profit considering yesterday'as losing position (3448)

Now I have no open position in BNF

Nifty

Long with two nifty with 10200 put hedge. I put SL 1.5 ATR considering high volatility in market. 

Closed 10500 CE short and 10800 CE long position considering high volatility in market. This is good time to trade in cash with small positions.

I am adopting trend follow with hedged position to avoid big loss and it will also restrict big profit for me. 

Super performance stock portfolio

I am doing an experiment to build a super performance stock portfolio for bear and bull market.

Steps to identify right stocks to buy

1. Buy nifty 50 stocks or top mid caps stocks which has been corrected by 38% from latest peak.
2. Buy stocks whose short term RSI reduced below 10
3. Stocks are in strong uptrend and creating lower lows  in daily chart
4. Stocks trading above 10 MA and taking support to 50 ma or 200 MA
5. Stocks formed a bullish reversal near strong support line in weekly or daily support

How to place orders to buy stocks  at correct levels

1. Place stop loss buy order at previous day low and VWAP
2. Buy stocks once the stock is trading above VWAP and 10 ma in 5  min time frame
3. Super trend gave fresh buy signal on daily time frame
4. Buy stocks if it trades above 0.8% above 1 SD based on daily volatility

Maximum amount 

I will buy stocks in equal proportions and my target is  to have 1 lot of shares.

Exit and profit book

Will keep stocks as long as they are part of Nifty 50

How many stocks to buy in portfolio

1. Reliance
2. VEDL
3. LT
4. Infosys
5. ITC
6. Kotakbank
7. Gail
8. UPL
9. HDFC 
10. HDFC bank

Portfolio beta

Maximum  portfolio should be around 1.5 of nifty

How to hedge the fund?

Fund will be protected for 20 % downfall by long term put option.  Will restrict premium to 3% to 5% of the portfolio value.

Monthly return 

Will sell 3 months OTM call options with delta 20. Will pledge my stocks and use the same margin to sell Call options.

Will sell stock specific cash rich put stock option

Trade plan post 78% correct in Nifty

I started this blog with an aim to earn to 4000 Rs in one month with 2 lakhs capital. I am on target till now.

I didn't do intraday trade on Friday as I lost small a mounts two consecutive days.

Market constituents got changed in last two weeks. Indian market is in strong grip of bears. FII and pro are selling indian options and selling synthetic shots.

Key points that I am considering

1. Nifty closed  below 200 DMA
2. Nifty completed 78.6% correction from the high of  last six months.
3. Key stocks  HDFC bank, HDFC, LT, Reliance,ITC, Maruti, Kotakbank and Gail are in oversold territory. But, this is not advisable to catch  falling knife and it also advised to buy the fear .
4.There are several points which can drag market any direction like  crude oil price , USD/INR conversion rate, sanction on Iran, festive seasons in India and forthcoming result of companies.
5. Indian VIX is around 20 now.

I expect market will make a short term bottom on 8th or 9th and will give a small short term upward rally.  There might be a sharp gap down on Monday before market corrects itself.

I decided to accumulate HDFC , Biocon, ITC, Kotakbank, Gail , Maruti, UPL shares for long term wealth building. 


Weekly income - , I will deploy both sides credit spread for BNF.

Monthly income  - Last Friday, I shorted  10000 PE , went long with  9800 PE and shorted  10600 CE

Margin used - 114000

days to expiry 18 days

Delta :-40
Vega :-1387

At current IV skew, PnL for this option strategy on the day of October expiry.

My PnL is around 14k per lot between 10040 to 10600.

Adjustment plan for monthly option position:

1. Market down :

• Sell Nifty future below 10260 to increase delta
• Add 9800 PE to keep vega under 1000
• Nifty crossed below 10000, move 10000 PE to 9600 PE.
• Square off 10600 CE and create a new short position 300 above nifty sport

2. Market  up

• Buy NF once nifty cross 10540.
• Move 10000 PE up by 100 points 
• Buy call options to manage vega

Challenges:

1. Short vega. This will impact option short positions and benefits buy positions.
2. High volatility increases management cos of the position as I might require frequent adjustment.

stock trading set up for paper trading

My trade plan for 5th October 2018

After two consecutive down days, we may see some relief rally tomorrow. 

Astrology also predicts a very  volatile market.

I will paper trade on following stocks

Hindalco
LT
BPCL
Reliance
TCS
Tatasteel

Being 1st day after banknify expiry, BNF might be up tomorrow in 1st session.

High probability set up for 4th October NSE

Technical view

• Crude  is going north wards
• Indian Rupess are getting weak
• Profit booking started in big stock stocks like RIL, TCS, Infosys  
• There are some improvements in housing finance companies

Astrological view

Today moon is with Saturn star. Moon is Vridha awasta in cancer with Rahu
Today's Ascendant

• Libra - Saturn in exalted  and Jupiter enemy
• Scorpio - Saturn enemy.
• Sagittarius - Saturn neutral and Jupiter ruling. Saturn is placed in Sagittarius.
• Capricon - Saturn ruling , Jupiter debilitated 

Today there will be strong Saturn effect in market.

Today  I will track following stocks

• Tatasteel
• Cipla
• Exide Industry
• SBIN
• Axisbank
• Jswsteel

I will book profit at 0.5% and will place SL 1.25 ATR. This is not a good RR for trading

Post market update

Today was saturn day. Market did good correction today. Corrections started on top stocks in NSE like TCS, RIL and HUL. 

Trade summary

Tatasteel                 (1095)
Cipla                         501
Exide Industry          152
SBIN                       Trade not triggered
Axisbank                   190
Jswsteel                    (275)

Operation cost          (500)

Total profit             (1027) 

This is second day I am in loss. As per rule no trade next day. I will trade again on Monday. 

If I make loss on monday, I will take brake for 3 days . 

I set up this rule to keep myself motivated. This loss might happen because of aberration in market.

High probability trading set up for 3rd Oct

Economic activity and institutional traders activity which will have influence on 3rd Oct trading

3rd October is a pressure date for stock market and an impulsive movement can be observed in market.

There are mixed news for investors and traders. Manufacturing pace picked up and there is healthy GST collection. However, auto industry faced muted sales and overall core sector growth reduced.

For the month of October, all eyes will be on MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meet which will unveil its results on October 5. Most economists feel that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might raise interest rates by 25 bps. Apart from MPC meeting, investors will watch out for earnings from India Inc. for the quarter-ended September 30. [Source: Moneycontrol]

Fuel price is on rise and Rs. is depreciating against USD.

Government decision regarding management of  IL&FS might give some relief in redemption of mutual funds.

FII/DI status s on 1st Oct

FII net seller and DI net buyer. This is the repetition of same  of story for last few months. 

Technical analysis of nifty 

Astrological view of NSE trading for 3rd Oct

Astro phenomena is not showing  any clear trend. I expect between 130 pm to 230 pm there will be good movement in NBFC and private banks. Pharma shares might shows some trending moves as Mars is exalted at Capricon and Mars is in Aries in D9 chart where it is ruling.

As a disciplined trader, I found few possible good trades and will execute any three stocks based on technical set up in 5 min TF.

1. CIPLA
2. PEL
3. Gail
4. Havells
5. BataIndia
6. Concor             
7. BhartAirttel
8. Amujacement   

Post market update

All days are not equal. Today, I selected few good stocks but the result is not satisfactory

PEL                           749
Cipla                        (794)
Bharti Airtell            285

Brokerage                 (300)

Total profit    (60)

Total account balance 216967

Observations:

1. PEL closed early before it touched support 1. It could have gave me 1% profit
2. Cipla touched support 2 and I should have exited with 1% profit.
3. Bhartiairtel exited before it hits resistance 1 . This trade would have gave me 1% profit.

My exit rules are:

1. Stock hit SL
2. Stock hit support and resistance
3. Market changed direction in volatile way
4. Profit is 1%

trade set up for 1st October 2018

Last week Indian market is undergoing a shock therapy. Market again proved that September is a bearish month. Crude price, USD/INR, ASM , mutual fund rationalization contributes this correction. 

For the week, the Sensex erased 614 points, or 1.67 per cent and the Nifty50 213 points, or 1.91 per cent. For Nifty, it was the fifth consecutive week of loss as per ET 

However, reduction in lot size may compensate the impact of ASM.

As a trader my job is search for stocks which meets my criteria. Following stocks met my selection criteria.

1. APOLLOTYRE
2. BATAINDIA
3. BPCL
4. CIPLA
5. GAIL
6. ICICIBANK
7. IOC
8. LT
9. MOTHERSUMI
10. TATAGLOBAL
11. TATASTEEL
12. UPL

As per astrology, tomorrow moon star lord is MARS. Mars in Capricon along with Ketu where MARS is exalted.

At 915, it will be Libra ASC where lord of Libra  Venus is positioned along with Jupiter. After 9:52, ASC will  be Scopio where MARs is ruling. In D9 chart, MARs is in Aries where MARS in ruling.

My view market will be weak initially and post 930 it may bounce back. There might be  a bullish close tomorrow.

I will primarily focus on Cipla , UPL , BPCL and Apollotyre.

I'm planning to take nifty future trade and daily short straddle for BNF.

My trading on 1st October 2018

Stocks

UPL                                      1182
Apollotyre                            (441)
BPCL                                     602
Brokerage & commission    (300)

Total profit from stocks :      1043

BNF

Indian VIX reached 18. Premium of OTM options are high. I chose to  short  deep OTM options in both sides.

Profit from BNF:  1762

Overall profit for 1st October 2805

Total account value as on 1st October 2018  217027

Trade-setup-28092018

High probability stock trading set up  on 1st day of October series

Key points to consider for October series:

1. Major Global indexes are not  in red zone.

2. Tomorrow is first day post expiry 

3. In Nifty 50 , 31 stocks decline today and 19 stock advances

4. Nifty formed bearish candle today. 

Astrological view 

Market will have one way direction. Considering star lord is Venus and initial hora is moon, we might see a strong opening. 

Technical view

1. Market closed below 100 DMA. Market take support from 144 DMA 

2. As per option data , market range will be 10800 and 11200

I will be working on below stocks

1. Asian paints 

2. Tatasteel 

3. Mothersonsumi

4. Gail

Post market update

Market opened strongly as predicted from Astrological point of view. 

Placed AMO orders for all these 4 stocks. Three trades executed and Gail buy trade rejected due to non availability of margin.

Asian paints                  1068   [buy]
Tatasteel                        2585   [sell]
MothersonSumi              309    [sell]

Total profit from trades 3962
Actual realized profit  post deduction of brokerages and commissions  3650.

Total account value  214222  

Trade set up for 27092018

1st week of my challenge is over. I am making  a plan to trade and trade the plan.

My view technical set up can indicate high probability trade set up.  News can make this high probability trade set up into a Jackpot one. 

The main contributor in market randomness is views of market participants. I believe astrology specially KP astrology can help a trader in this area. I am learning applied astrology rules for better prediction .

Astrological view  

Tomorrow star lord in Ketu. Sun and Mars has 120 degree. 

Technical view

Being expiry day market might be volatile. 

I will focus on following stocks

1. Reliance

2. Gail

3. Auropharma

4. Axisbank

5. CESC

I traded Gail, Tatasteel, Axisbank. and Tatasteel.

All three trades ended in positive.

Gail             425
Tatasteel      280
Axisbank     411

Total profit post deduction of omission and brokerage 816

Account balance 210260

My trade plan for October expiry

1. Will do intraday and positional trading both

2. Will set up an iron condor for Nifty.  

3. Will set credit spread for banknifty.

Positions:

I took small positions in following counters
HDFCbank
VEDL 

Trade set up for 26092018

Astrological view

Day star lord mercury. Moon in Pisces (Airy sign) and in kishore awastha. Lord of Pisces is Jupiter. Moon.Mercury is in Virgo where is it ruling and exalted. mercury has seven aspect on Moon. 

It will be a bullish day. 

Technical view

There was very good recovery in Nifty in last one hour. Market is  not expecting any major bad news. 

I will watch on following scripts

1. Gail

2. LT

3. CESC

4. Tatasteel

5. Tatamotors

Post market update on trade

Market was bullish as foretasted. 

Today took three trades 

Tatasteel               (156)

CESC                   805

Cipla                    537

Brokerage            (300)

and others             

Total Profit      888 

Total Available balance after 7 th day is  Rs. 209444   

Trade set up for 25092018

Astrological view: 

Moon is with Saturn star. There might be a recovery post 2 PM tomorrow when moon will be in sublord of sun and Jupiter Hora.

Technical view

• Nifty formed bearish pattern and fall continue for 5 consecutive days. Will Nifty bull will be able to hold 10866, a key support level.

News :

• Crude MCX touched 5300. This is a warning signal to Indian economy. 
• Market will look for outcome of FOMC meeting 
• Uncertainty over liquidity crunch for NBFC bank. 
• HDFC one of the key components of Nifty 50, has investment with IL&FS 
• Farther 5000 CR bank fraud

I will observe following stocks for tomorrow. 

1. Tatasteel

2. Hindalco

3. ONGC

4. Axisbank

Market is very volatile so trading need to be reduced.

Post market update for 25092018

Market was very volatile. Traded Tatasteel and Voltas. Made total profit Rs. 650 post commission and brokerage.

Available balance 208556

Trade set up & execution post black Friday -24092018

This will be my second week as independent trader.

• Astrological view

1. 24th is a full moon day. market might form  a short term bottom and enter into a buy zone around 27th September
2. Moon has 3rd house aspect by Saturn and in "Mrita" awastha. Moon star is Jupiter . 
3. Market will be range bound as per my understanding. 

• Technical view

1. Nifty bounced back from 10866. This implies nifty has support at lower level. 

• Important factors with possible impact on market

1. Farther liquidation of bond by corporate
2. Resignation of IL&FS  MD
3. Funding issues of NBFC 
4. USD/INR and crude price 

Trade Plan

 1. NIFTY:  Intraday Sell  Nifty Oct 10800 October PE and  Nifty Oct 11600 CE . Will put SL double the premium received.  Will keep SL buy order for 11600 CE and 10600 PE.

2. Banknifty :  Intraday sell of 25000 PE and 26200 CE . Will place order @915 and will additional lots  @ 11 AM and 2 PM . Will put stop loss buy order at OTM.

3. Stocks 

Trade update post market hour:

Market behaved as per my expectation.

Only traded Tatasteel today and made a loss 1073.

Available balance 207906

Lesson Learned: Will track  two stocks for intraday trading. It is difficult to track more than two stocks. Will do in future once my competency level will increase. At present OMC , Metal and IT stocks are doing well so will concentrate on these stocks only.

Observation

Last week Bajaj Finance and Reliance capital trade successfully executed. I put SL ad target in those trade. Stocks went farther down after hitting target so I have profit gap.
Yesterday, I did not put target for Tatasteel. It was in good profit but did an U turn and converted the trade in losing trade.

1. Will continue to put target and check profit gap for 100 trades
2. Should I put target as .7% or 1 %
3. Should I consider the stocks which meet target are in trend

Black Friday trade journal

How I performed on black Friday?

What a day for a new trader!!

My view was volatile day with bullish bias. I was elated in 1st half by seeing trades are going in my direction but second half showed the actual drama. Nifty lost 3.2 % in this week. 

So,  how did I perform today. 

Axis bank buy                +2000

Reliance capital  buy       -3100 

Reliance capital sell       +7986

Gail sell                          +1090 

I put stop loss buy in DHFL not triggered. I was confident on positive movement so didn't put stoploss sell order. Did I protect capital or it's a big opportunity loss?

My current account status:

Opening balance:                         201503

Day's profit Profit                            7476

Total account balance                 208979

Lesson learned from 1 st week of independent trading:

1. Follow trade plan. Will follow 1 ATR SL and will use cover order instead of BO

2. Astrological pattern showed possible  movement but I failed to identify direction. Need to analyse more. Is the moon in Raghu star the reason for such a fall during cancer ascendant? Did Gail perform well while moon in Ketu sub lord?

I found a great astrological analysis by Mr. Attri on cause for banknifty crash on 21st Sp 2018. There is another brilliant analysis by Mr. Brahmesh on "What Caused Huge sell-off and panic in the Stock Market yesterday?"

trade set up- 21092018

Trade  plan for 21902019

Factors  I am considering for tomorrow's trade setup.

1. 21st Sep is Gan turn date
2. 25th September is full moon day
3. Sun mercury conjunction
4. Moon is in capricon at 19.61 degree which is its detrimental sign and moon avastha is kishore
5. Moon is in Raghu star and sublord is mercury.
6. Sun and mercury is in conjunct.

In summary, my view is market will be volatile with upward bias. 

Overall I expect the day will be volatile. As per astrology, banking, financials and real estate companies should be bullish . Metals and Auto sectors might be bearish. 

I selected 1 hour ATR as stoploss for intraday trading.

I will place cover order instead of BO.  Zerodha creates multiple orders for a BO order.

I have bullish view for Reliance capital and Axisbank. Gail may be range bound to bearish.

I will also check DHFL tomorrow morning as this stock id due for a large move. I am planning to focus on Oil Marketing companies like IOC, BPCL.

Will continue to hold HDFC bank.  Will slowly acquire the stock if profit booking continues. This is one of the most valued company and I believe average down will be profitable.

Will start trading covered call with Nifty future from October series. I will continue this challenge for six month to establish a realistic expectation from market. I will use sharekhan portal for this trading.

Tradejournal-19092018

How did my trade set up perform today? 

Yesterday, I did analysis based on technical and astronomical set up. 

Gail, HDFC bank and Bajaj finance has good movement. No movement in DHFL . Slow long covering is going on Hexaware.  I am happy with my trade selection.

I successfully executed my trades today though tempted to exit few times. 

Today's intraday  profit 

Bajaj Finance  2000

Hexaware          200

Trading account balance 201503 [ post all brokerage and taxes]

HDFC bank crossed below 200 MA after 20 months. I am planning to build up position in HDFC bank slowly so that I can sell call options to earn rental income from this script. Will accumulate more stocks once HDFC bank closes below 1950 , 1900. 

Will update once PnL report updated at Zerodha.

I would like to thanks all people who helped me to learn this wonderful profession in last couple of months. I will share a post on my learning journey, my mentors  tomorrow.

My goal is become a professional trader and investor. 

Tradesetup-19092018

Trump administration agreed for trade talk with China. This is a temporary relief to global stock market. 

Tomorrow, star lord is Venus and day lord is Mercury. Ascendant for NSE is Libra  at 915 AM. Mercury is entering Virgo where it is ruling and exalted. 

I expect market to be flat and bearish till 10:30 AM and market might recover during mercury Hora in second half. 

I will focus on private bank, IT industry and gas based on tomorrow's planetary position.

Trade rule is Rs.20000 will be allocated to each trade and maximum allowed trading loss is 5000 per trade.  I will be a fearless mechanical trader.

I will track following stocks for creating position. 

Click the link to know my  trade rules .

Tradejournal-18092018

I completed second day as independent trader.

It is a mix day. One intraday trade was in profit and other one in loss. Took small position in HDFC bank.

Here is the result of 3 trades.

My total profit gap for Reliance capital is around 4000. I would have got this money if I followed my rules.

Taking trade is important and keep it as per plan is more important.

Total income for 18th September after brokerage, commission and taxes 18.

Account status for intra day trading

Trade setup for 18092018

Trade set up for 18th Sep depends on following parameters:

1. USD INR rate

2. Crude price 

3. FII and DII cash flow for 17th September

4. Advance Decline of 17th September

5. Chang in strike wise option and PCR for various scripts

6. Asia and Europe market

I will follow the below trade set up for day trading:

• Total investment                200000
• Max amount  per stock 20000
• Maxloss in a day                 15000
• Number of trades                        3
• Max loss per trade                5000

Trade rules

1. All orders will be BO order of Zerodha
2. Trades will be closed based on Target hit, SL hit or auto close by broker at 3:20 PM

Trade set up for 18th Sep 2018

My view to market is consolidation. Astrological view for NSE at 915 is bearish. I will trade in a hora favorable to me. 

Trade journal -17092018

Hurrah!!

Today is the first day when I did my first trading independently. 

A professional trader plans his trade before market opens. I did that yesterday. 

A professional trader trades based on confirmation. Based on market sentiment I decided to place sell order for all counters.

I expected a gap up movement but market opened with a high bearish tone. In this scenario, I waited for 15 minutes to understand the market. I changed my entry levels based on behavior of stocks this morning.

For a trader execution of the trade in the most important not the result. I placed the trade and check the result now i.e post 6 PM.

My sell order of 500 quantity of Reliance capital executed @411 which was the low of first 15 minutes. Trade closed at 3:20 and incurred total loss of Rs. 515. Total loss includes trade loss, brokerage, taxes and all other government charges. 

No other trades triggered today.

Why my trade went wrong?

Script had gap down so I could not place the trade @413 as planned.

Is this the real reason?

Should I do this analysis at all?

Can I prevent this loss?

Can I force market to follow my desire?

As a trader I have to remember that I do all analysis based on data point which are nothing but human emotions frozen in past. I can follow a high probability trade set up.

Actual reason for my loss

There were traders who aggressively placed sell orders on Reliance capital in morning and after some time another group of traders’ put counter buy orders in same counter which lead to pull back. At the end of the day, bears overpowered the bulls with a small amount. I have no control on this process.

I am a retail trader I can execute the trade and manage the maximum loss amount. I can put the trade as per my plan and rational. I expected price will go down farther from first 15 minute low and market did not behave as per my expectation. That’s all.

I am happy I able to close the day with a loss of Rs. 515 for an investment of around Rs. 20k.

Will publish my tomorrow’s trade plan in the night.

Initial capital: 200000

Current value: 199485

Tomorrow will be a new day. New hope. 

Let’s see how market rewards me tomorrow

Stock Trading Steps

Trade result for 17th September

It was May 2014, I was in MasiMara,Kenya  to watch crossing of animals across the Mara river. It was a one-week trip to recharge and rejuvenate myself away from the hustle and bustle of Mumbai.  Little, I knew this trip in Masai Mara will answer my long pending question – how can I maintain the similar life style post retirement.

I met with a young French couple in a night game drive. During the course of travel, I found these couple are globe trotter.  They are stock trader and follow “4 hour work week “ by Tim Ferris to achieve freedom from corporate life.

I studied various methods stock trading and did paper trading to understand the concept. This process of self-study  continued for  3 years. I attended two online training workshops.

I am ready for my first independent training. I decided to start my trading tomorrow 17th September just after my 53rd birthday.

My total capital 2,00,000 in Zerodha trading account. My target is to achieve 2 % return over my capital in 25 trading days.

Target amount in trading amount on 17th October is  2,04,000 

I will trade in cash on 3 stocks maximum in a day. I will limit INR 20000  for trading in one stock.
I will use Zerodha BO order with SL 1 %. Order will be closed with Target or SL or EOD.

My market view for 17th Sep’18 is positive because Nifty formed hammer candle on weekly chart and at the money call unwinding. As per technical and option chart, the possible range of Nifty will be between 11600 to 11300.

I selected 5 stocks to trade for tomorrow. Will trade on three stocks based on trigger.

I will place three orders between 9:30 AM  to 9:45 AM. Will see account only in evening post office  hours. In case, volatility increases SL need to be increased to accommodate large swing.  In that case, will do two trades instead of three trades.

1. Tatamotors

Quantity: 800
Buy above 270
Sell below 263
SL 3 points so max loss 2400

2. Hexaware

Quantity: 450
Buy above 468
Sell below 456
SL 5 points so max loss 2250

3. Reliance capital

Quantity: 500
Buy above 424
Sell below 413
SL 5 points so max loss 2500

4. LT

Quantity: 150
Buy above 1370
Sell below 1350
SL 20 points so max loss 3000

5.  Apollo tyre

Quantity: 500
Buy above 244
Sell below 232
SL 5 points so max loss 2500

My max loss will be around 7500 in three trades. I will set 2% as profit target for each trade.

If I make continuous loss for 25 days I will be out of business. I will be part of those 95% trader who lose capital in first 3 months. In actual market, emotion gets tested and that is the biggest challenge for a trader to have consistency.

Will share my rational behind selection of stocks, target and set of stop-loss in future posts if I survive more than 3 months.