Monthly income pan update -26102018

Today Nifty formed a bearish candle and heading towards 9950 support. Gann followers predicting low near 9826 on 29th October. This is 10 year cycle completion from last crash.

Please follow my trade journal to know why 29th October is so important.

Market reached to a bottom around 930 AM and I need to adjust my position to increase my profitability and reduce option long position to avoid weekend theta decay.

Click the link to know more on my monthly income plan using option trading

Update after 26th Oct market closure: Some legs covered today that resulted a profit  of 4200.

My view about Nifty 

Business cycle follow movement of moon north node. Moon north node is now in cancer. Based on past market behavior it indicates long term bear trend.

Nifty is already below its 200 MA

As an option trader, I follow weekly cycle and nifty just took support on 100 week moving average. Next support will be 200 week morning average.  

Current positions

Long  Nifty Dec   10000 PE     600
Long  Nifty Dec   9000   PE       75
Short  Nifty Nov  10200 CE       75
Short  Nifty Nov    9500 PE    1275
Nifty Future long

Greeks

Delta   15
Theta   1868
Vega    -1635
Gamma  -0.35

Theta/Vega = 1.15

Negative Gama will be profit if Nifty's southward journey.

Estimated PnL on expiry day 

With current volatility

9360     88000
9500    200000
10100   88000


Market view for 29th October : Market my witness gap up or gap down because day star is Rahu. Technically, emotion is very bearish.

RSI shows market is oversold so a  pull back to Fibo level 10600 is possible.

Adjustments:

• If market is going up, will add  Nifty long , square off 10200 CE
• If market is going down, square off 9800 PE and sell more call 

My target is to earn 8000 from this position and 4000 already credited. I expect I will meet the target on Monday itself.

Nifty view for November

My friend Bramesh published a thoughtful analysis on Nifty based on astrological events.