Next price time square for Nifty

How to trade Nifty based Gann price time square?

Nifty completed price time square on last Friday as predicted by Gann calculation and astronomical calculation.

Let us check what should be the next possible range of Nifty

117151 3rd Sept  High
10030   26th Oct  Low

Based on price range possible dates where market will show impulsive movements

28-10-2018
30-10-2018
05-11-2018
12-11-2018
20-11-2018
14-12-2018
18-12-2018
30-12-2018
15-01-2019
04-02-2019
25-02-2019
19-03-2019

Nifty did face resistance at 10200 on 30th October . Today, Nifty showed strength and reached to next critical resistance level 10400 and closed at 10386.

Next critical resistance 10609 and support 10201

Nifty made an intermediate high 10701 on 17th Oct . Considering 10701 as recent high, and 10030 as recent low, Nifty completed  50%  pullback.  

Nifty need to close above 10701 to resume its upwards journey otherwise Nifty might slip below 10000.

Let us check how astronomy can help us to predict possible Nifty movement 

1st Nov , Thursday  market might be range bound to up 

2nd Nov, Friday might be a bearish day 

5th Nov, Monday might be a volatile and  bearish day 

I consulted Financial almanac by Tamilsandhi

What option chain reveals ?

Put writing happened at 10400, 10300 and 10200. However, put unwinding happened at 10500. We can infer market participants expects stable to bullish market for 1st November

What are the possible Gann price levels?

26 th October close price 10030 squared at 90 degree offset of 53 degree calendar days.

Based on last price time square future possible price ranges are

10258  At this price previous downtrend will over as per Gann rule
10359
10460
10561
10663

On 1st November Nifty spot closed at 10380. Hence, Nifty resumed its northward journey.

Long trade can be initiated with first target 10460 and stop loss 10359.  

My plan to trade nifty for Nov

sell 9600 put 10 lots
sell 11000 call 10 lots

Buy Nifty future  and stop loss buy ATM Nifty put. Hedge the position overnight not in business hours.

In future article, will discuss how astronomy can guide to improve the above  forecast of future price and time.

Does Nifty complete price time square?

W D Gann price time square is a critical calculation for trader. The key of the method, the calculation predicts possible reversal based on previous range and significant high and low.

Key important parameters 

Significant low  9952 made on 23rd February 2018
Significant high  11157 made on 3rd September 2018

Price range                       1799
Trading days elapsed           36
Calendar days elapsed         55

Price time square calculation can be accomplished in several ways.

I am discussing three simple methods here.

1. Find the price window using Gann square nine calculator and time window based on previous price range . The basis of this calculation is price = time * time 

Next possible PT square happen on

16-10-2018    Price closed near Gann static level and market witnessed great movement next  day
28-11-2018
10-01-2019

2. Price must reach a significant static Gann level on  natural square dates like 1, 4th, 25th , 36th and so on from 3rd September 2018.

19-09-2018      PT square happened as price closed vert near to 11237.  Market witnessed a volatile
                         movement next day

22-10-2018       Nifty witnessed  volatile movement but no trend change happen


3. Converting price and range to degree and find the closest match

 Nifty closed at 10030 . Degree equivalent of 10030 is 161 which squared with previous time range in calendar days i.e. 164 days.

If there is reversal, downtrend will continue . Following price levels might work as support 10001  9951 , 9901 , 9851  , 9851  , 9801 and major resistance will be 10201.

In next article , I will discuss on astronomical calculation for possible price time square.

Monthly income pan update -26102018

Today Nifty formed a bearish candle and heading towards 9950 support. Gann followers predicting low near 9826 on 29th October. This is 10 year cycle completion from last crash.

Please follow my trade journal to know why 29th October is so important.

Market reached to a bottom around 930 AM and I need to adjust my position to increase my profitability and reduce option long position to avoid weekend theta decay.

Click the link to know more on my monthly income plan using option trading

Update after 26th Oct market closure: Some legs covered today that resulted a profit  of 4200.

My view about Nifty 

Business cycle follow movement of moon north node. Moon north node is now in cancer. Based on past market behavior it indicates long term bear trend.

Nifty is already below its 200 MA

As an option trader, I follow weekly cycle and nifty just took support on 100 week moving average. Next support will be 200 week morning average.  

Current positions

Long  Nifty Dec   10000 PE     600
Long  Nifty Dec   9000   PE       75
Short  Nifty Nov  10200 CE       75
Short  Nifty Nov    9500 PE    1275
Nifty Future long

Greeks

Delta   15
Theta   1868
Vega    -1635
Gamma  -0.35

Theta/Vega = 1.15

Negative Gama will be profit if Nifty's southward journey.

Estimated PnL on expiry day 

With current volatility

9360     88000
9500    200000
10100   88000


Market view for 29th October : Market my witness gap up or gap down because day star is Rahu. Technically, emotion is very bearish.

RSI shows market is oversold so a  pull back to Fibo level 10600 is possible.

Adjustments:

• If market is going up, will add  Nifty long , square off 10200 CE
• If market is going down, square off 9800 PE and sell more call 

My target is to earn 8000 from this position and 4000 already credited. I expect I will meet the target on Monday itself.

Nifty view for November

My friend Bramesh published a thoughtful analysis on Nifty based on astrological events.

Monthly income plan for Nov expiry

When theory meets with practical - option strategy

I am working on a multi legged option strategy for November 2018. This is an experimental set up. I want  to experiment greek behaviors with time, volatility and news. I intentionally did not use any proven strategy like iron condor, Asymmetric iron condor. 

This is first time I deployed and managing  an option strategy. I am referring  Quantsapp for my position  Greeks .

Philosophy of this strategy:

1. Create a put calendar spread around 10000 PE. This is a low probability set up as this combination gives maximum profit around 10000 only. To convert the same to high probability set up, sold 10400 CE

2. Global equity market is in downtrend and trading below 200 DMA. So I have created a vertical spread with 9800 PE and 9500 CE.

3. I make one NF long to reduce overall negative delta of the position.

Strikewise position detail

Nifty Future long                     1 lot
Nifty Nov 9800 PE long          8 lot
Nifty Nov 9500 PE short         8 lot
Nifty Nov 10400  CE short     4 lot
Nifty Nov 10000 PE short       7 lot
Nifty Dec 10000 PE  long       5 lot


Greek values as per Quantsapp.

Delta       -69
Theta     1200.2
Vega        1504
Gamma  -0.21

Margin used

12 lakh and margin benefits 1.4 lakh

Expected return for next  8 days

Nifty      Estimated Return

9500            3400
9800          26100
10040        26500
10200        18000
10310        11340
10400          2000

Nifty spot is at 10124 on 25th Oct 2018 and today's Profit   ( -2500)


If I have out this money in bank , I would have got 5000 interest  per month post income tax  from the same capital. I need to target 10000 per month considering the risk involve in the strategy.

My target is to earn Rs. 8000 from this strategy in first month. My annual target is to double the capital by Dec 2020 using FnO strategy.

Adjustment 

1. Will convert this strategy a delta  neutral strategy tomorrow by adding another Nifty future. 
2.  Will do adjustment once nifty spot closed below 9800 or above 
3. Will maintain theta to vega ratio >40  
4. Will maintain gamma near zero or little positive
5. Will book loss if premium of short position gets doubled 
6. Will book profit in short position  if 50 % credit realized.
7. Will exit if position loss reach 10,000

Exit rules 

1. Will exit once the strategy earns 8000
2. Will exit 26th November  to avoid Gamma risk & quick theta decay for long positions in expiry week
3. Will exit if strategy takes more than 13 lakh margin

Update on my monthly income plan  on 26th Oct

Trade plan for 24-10-2018

How I am planning to trade in November expiry?

I will consider followings macro economic conditions to understand the probability of more deep correction.

1. GDP growth of India
2. Inflation
3. Rating by external agency
4. USD INR rate
5. Company performance of Q2
6. Forthcoming elections

My exiting NF & BNF trade will continue tomorrow.

I will look for long opportunity inn Nifty and Reliance.

trade performance for 23 rd Oct 2018

I am working on myself to shield myself from the common saying that  "Investors tend to sell winning investments while holding on to their losing investments". Trading in a falling market is really scary.

I accumulated Ibull Housing stock fr last few days and finally I exited with mo profit no loss condition. It is very difficult to trade in a volatile market for a new trader like me.

An interesting video from  Mr.  Nitin Bhatia on Nifty correction


Three good things happened in last two weeks

1. I completed my simple program in excel to get buy and sell signal based on EOD data. This model is based  candle stick reversal pattern along with 10, 50 and 200 MA. I am working to include IV, HV and open interest to make the program more robust.

2. I completed a simple back test software and this program helps to evaluate various modifications of my program

3. I attended Quantsapp option symposium.  I learned various nuances of option selling.

I will resume stock trading post expiry this month.

What wheels in the sky is telling  for tomorrow?

Tomorrow full moon.  Indian market can be bottomed out tomorrow. 

Nifty position 

My current deployed option strategy has a Created range from 9800 to 10400
Theta to Vega ratio 40

Possible adjustment, if Nifty brakes 10000 level, will move 10000 PE to 9500 PE as this might trigger a bigger fall.

Nifty buy 10175 and target 10225, Nifty sell 10115 to 10080 

Banknifty position 

My strategy of vertical spread week option is giving me good result. I set up a risky strategy for tomorrow where I sold two 24500 PE and bought only one 24500 put for next week.

Banknifty buy 25052  and   sell 24900 , target 100 point and SL 100 point

Stocks where some actions might happen on 24th Oct : Reliance, CanBank, ONGC based on chart.

I set up a vertical spread for Reliance expecting a quick recovery of 50 odd points  as short covering before and immediately after expiry.

Trade journal for 19th Oct

Indian market is in tight bear grip. It reminds me of 19th October 1987.  Some brokers are seeing the ghost of 29th October 1929.

And, why not ?

The foretasted dates of WD Gann  in 1929 has close similarity with Nifty performance in 2018.  This also coincides with 90 years  cycle.

source: internet

This is a challenging time for stock investors and arguably fertile time for shorting futures. I expect market will give up move once PCR goes in .08 to ,06 range. Though the increase of IV and HV together in last two days indicates more fear in market.

I set up NF strategy considering a small bullish movement in early next week.

Positional stock trading:

I am  buying Nifty shares slowly fr each drop of 50 to 100 points.

Nifty

Sold 9800 PE for Nov and bought 9500 Nov put.
Sold 10500 CE and bought 10700 CE

Position greeks

delta       16
Vega    1579
Theta    -384
Gamma  .06

Will buy NF above 10334 and sell below 10273. Target 40 points with 2 lots.


Banknifty 

Bought 25000PE
Sold  2*24500 PE

Maxpain for BNF 25200

maximum put unwind happen from 25000 and still OI is around 690 k.
750 K is maximum OI  is at 24500

upside brake even 24950  so will buy intraday future above 25155

My stock trading performance in last 4 weeks and plan ahead

I completed my first month stock trading as an independent trader. 

Good news is I made profit.I started this challenge with 200K INR with a target to earn 4000 INR post all operational expenses.

My current equity is 223243 

This is indeed a motivating performance as I achieved in a  most challenging time while INR is depreciating fast, crude price is moving north, US-China trade war is getting more intense, possible US sanction on India for dealing with Russia for arms, growing political unrest in India.

My plan for next month

1. BNF option trading with daily target 1000

2. Using Jeep option strategy to earn  2% per month.

3. Building a portfolio with top 10 companies on Nifty and accumulating 5 high dividend yielding stocks.

My trade rules

Banknifty is very volatile now. I will short OTM call and put with almost equal premium.
'
Entry rule -  Based on current option chain, my plan is to short 24000 PE and 25900 CE. I will get around 120 Rs premium.

Exit rule:

1. Will exit if premium is is more than 110% in any side. Will put tight SL on otherside.
2.  Will exit if combo gets 20% of total premium received.
3. Will exit at 3 PM

Total margin required : 130000 at my brokers platform

Total brokerage           : 100

Premium received       : 4340

Target profit                : 700 to 1000

This is a risky strategy so SL need to be placed to protect capital.


Nifty :  Will deploy vertical put spread

 My current  position is with multiple lots

Buy 9600 PE of November
Sell 10200 PE of November
Buy 10000 PE o November

current profit 6503

Current Greek of the strategy :
Delta  -14
Theata  -411
Gamma   .008
Vega   2091

This strategy will do well for quick downward movement.

Performance of the strategy

Downward adjustment :

10400  , close one short put and sell a new put at 9800
at 10300 , close 50% of 10200 short put and add at 9800
At 10200 , will buy 9500 put

Upside adjustment 

will buy one lot NF future once NS  moves above 10480 and stays there for 15 min


Nifty  is in clear downtrend as it is forming lower highs and lower lows and volatility will remain high.

Stocks for 19th Oct

Short term swing trading:

• TechM   
• Adaniport
• Torrentpower
• KPIT

Positional 

Will accumulate HDFC, HDFC bank, India bull housing finance, Infosys, TCS  and Reliance industry for fall of 1 ATR

trading performance 12th Oct

Indian market is highly volatile. Indian VIX is hovering around 20.

I did paper trading for some times in recent past but those were low volatile time. I started my trading in market during blood bath. USD/INR and crude oil price is directly impacting Indian economy.  US sanction on Iran oil and trade war with China is creating an uncomfortable situation in Global business.

I incurred good loss in Nifty future trading due to large fall on 11th Oct. I made good profit Nifty and kept my position overnight just to face black Thursday.

Yesterday and today,  I took positions in Axis bank and Balarampur chini. I made total profit  5900 profit after brokerage and tax.

My current equity 223043

What went good

My EOD analysis on stock picking has high success rate.
OTM straddle and vertical spread option strategy is working as per my expectation
However, my trading in Nifty is not happening properly.

What went wrong?

Need to work on trade plan creation and execute the plan. The trader has to create trade plan based on his own personality and position management skill.

Lesson learned 

Trader can still work on tips but trading on burrowed trade plan is suicidal for trader.

stock trading performance for 10th Oct 2018

I have bullish view on Nifty because

1. Nifty spot touched 10201 which is 315 degree at Gann square nine
2. Nifty spot took support from S3 ( 10277) thrice
3. Nifty forms higher high and lower lows in last three days which is bullish sign
4.RSI reached near 20 from where Nifty always bounced back in past
5. PCR ratio is indicating a bullish view
6. Nifty is close to its moving average support in weekly chart
7. Several key companies of Nifty 50 is trading near or below 200 DMA

Nifty 

Current position :

Nifty long                      4 lots
Nifty 10000 PE short    8 lots
Nifty 10200 PE long     6 lots
Nifty 10600 CE short    2 lots

overall position is delta positive and vega positive.

Banknifty

I did some crazy trading today. Need to work to encash this kind super bullish move. Looks like its a huge short covering rally and we might see next long builld up rally.

I started short 24000 PE and at the end I shored 25200 PE. Made some good profit. No position is open and will do expiry trading zade lizard option strategy

Stocks

I closed Reliance capital and Ajanta Pharma. Total profit 1250 


My current equity  217143

stock trade set up 8th october

How I performed today?

Positional trading - I started building my portfolio. Today I bought 50 shares on RIL and HDFC bank.

How my monthly option trading progressed

I did adjustment today. I moved down put sell from 10000 to 9800 considering high volatility of market. If market moves up fast, there will be quick loss in time value due to delta and theta. This will be more profitable if market goes up as in this scenario, implied volatility will reduce.

My new positions:

9800 PE Short    Quantity  450
9600 PE  long     Quantity  450
10500 CE short   Quantity  450
10800 CE long    Quantity  750

Profit made 1000 rs

Plan for tomorrow : I will buy Nifty once it brakes today's high in spot. Market should move up in second half.

I traded not as per my plan. This is crime for a trader. 

Market never forgives undisciplined trader.

How my daily trading on BNF 

I did well initially. I sold 23800 PE and 25000 PE and booked profit 3278.
However, I did speculative trading. I sold 24700 CE and bought 24800 CE. This position is in loss of around 5000.

This is a bad trading as astrologically BNF expected to bounce back in second half.

Will take a long position in BNF or short double the number of put short or sell more OTM calls.

This option sell position will be benefited once market did mean reversion in volatility.

Plan for tomorrow 

Market made a good recovery today and volatility crashed at some time in second half.

My stock pics for tomorrow

1. Ambuja cement

2. Reliance capital

3. Gail

4. TataChemical


After market update 

As per my astrological calculation market showed signs of recovery in second half but bulls failed to maintain the gain.

Stocks

Intraday order 

Tatachemical                  600
Ambuja cement            (256)
Gail                               (91)

Profit  after brokerage and taxes (47)


Positional order 

Reliance capital          - Target to exit with 2 % profit and will do once average if it goes down 

BNF 

Today I created credit spread in both sides and made profit.

Total profit considering yesterday'as losing position (3448)

Now I have no open position in BNF

Nifty

Long with two nifty with 10200 put hedge. I put SL 1.5 ATR considering high volatility in market. 

Closed 10500 CE short and 10800 CE long position considering high volatility in market. This is good time to trade in cash with small positions.

I am adopting trend follow with hedged position to avoid big loss and it will also restrict big profit for me. 

Super performance stock portfolio

I am doing an experiment to build a super performance stock portfolio for bear and bull market.

Steps to identify right stocks to buy

1. Buy nifty 50 stocks or top mid caps stocks which has been corrected by 38% from latest peak.
2. Buy stocks whose short term RSI reduced below 10
3. Stocks are in strong uptrend and creating lower lows  in daily chart
4. Stocks trading above 10 MA and taking support to 50 ma or 200 MA
5. Stocks formed a bullish reversal near strong support line in weekly or daily support

How to place orders to buy stocks  at correct levels

1. Place stop loss buy order at previous day low and VWAP
2. Buy stocks once the stock is trading above VWAP and 10 ma in 5  min time frame
3. Super trend gave fresh buy signal on daily time frame
4. Buy stocks if it trades above 0.8% above 1 SD based on daily volatility

Maximum amount 

I will buy stocks in equal proportions and my target is  to have 1 lot of shares.

Exit and profit book

Will keep stocks as long as they are part of Nifty 50

How many stocks to buy in portfolio

1. Reliance
2. VEDL
3. LT
4. Infosys
5. ITC
6. Kotakbank
7. Gail
8. UPL
9. HDFC 
10. HDFC bank

Portfolio beta

Maximum  portfolio should be around 1.5 of nifty

How to hedge the fund?

Fund will be protected for 20 % downfall by long term put option.  Will restrict premium to 3% to 5% of the portfolio value.

Monthly return 

Will sell 3 months OTM call options with delta 20. Will pledge my stocks and use the same margin to sell Call options.

Will sell stock specific cash rich put stock option

Trade plan post 78% correct in Nifty

I started this blog with an aim to earn to 4000 Rs in one month with 2 lakhs capital. I am on target till now.

I didn't do intraday trade on Friday as I lost small a mounts two consecutive days.

Market constituents got changed in last two weeks. Indian market is in strong grip of bears. FII and pro are selling indian options and selling synthetic shots.

Key points that I am considering

1. Nifty closed  below 200 DMA
2. Nifty completed 78.6% correction from the high of  last six months.
3. Key stocks  HDFC bank, HDFC, LT, Reliance,ITC, Maruti, Kotakbank and Gail are in oversold territory. But, this is not advisable to catch  falling knife and it also advised to buy the fear .
4.There are several points which can drag market any direction like  crude oil price , USD/INR conversion rate, sanction on Iran, festive seasons in India and forthcoming result of companies.
5. Indian VIX is around 20 now.

I expect market will make a short term bottom on 8th or 9th and will give a small short term upward rally.  There might be a sharp gap down on Monday before market corrects itself.

I decided to accumulate HDFC , Biocon, ITC, Kotakbank, Gail , Maruti, UPL shares for long term wealth building. 


Weekly income - , I will deploy both sides credit spread for BNF.

Monthly income  - Last Friday, I shorted  10000 PE , went long with  9800 PE and shorted  10600 CE

Margin used - 114000

days to expiry 18 days

Delta :-40
Vega :-1387

At current IV skew, PnL for this option strategy on the day of October expiry.

My PnL is around 14k per lot between 10040 to 10600.

Adjustment plan for monthly option position:

1. Market down :

• Sell Nifty future below 10260 to increase delta
• Add 9800 PE to keep vega under 1000
• Nifty crossed below 10000, move 10000 PE to 9600 PE.
• Square off 10600 CE and create a new short position 300 above nifty sport

2. Market  up

• Buy NF once nifty cross 10540.
• Move 10000 PE up by 100 points 
• Buy call options to manage vega

Challenges:

1. Short vega. This will impact option short positions and benefits buy positions.
2. High volatility increases management cos of the position as I might require frequent adjustment.

stock trading set up for paper trading

My trade plan for 5th October 2018

After two consecutive down days, we may see some relief rally tomorrow. 

Astrology also predicts a very  volatile market.

I will paper trade on following stocks

Hindalco
LT
BPCL
Reliance
TCS
Tatasteel

Being 1st day after banknify expiry, BNF might be up tomorrow in 1st session.

High probability set up for 4th October NSE

Technical view

• Crude  is going north wards
• Indian Rupess are getting weak
• Profit booking started in big stock stocks like RIL, TCS, Infosys  
• There are some improvements in housing finance companies

Astrological view

Today moon is with Saturn star. Moon is Vridha awasta in cancer with Rahu
Today's Ascendant

• Libra - Saturn in exalted  and Jupiter enemy
• Scorpio - Saturn enemy.
• Sagittarius - Saturn neutral and Jupiter ruling. Saturn is placed in Sagittarius.
• Capricon - Saturn ruling , Jupiter debilitated 

Today there will be strong Saturn effect in market.

Today  I will track following stocks

• Tatasteel
• Cipla
• Exide Industry
• SBIN
• Axisbank
• Jswsteel

I will book profit at 0.5% and will place SL 1.25 ATR. This is not a good RR for trading

Post market update

Today was saturn day. Market did good correction today. Corrections started on top stocks in NSE like TCS, RIL and HUL. 

Trade summary

Tatasteel                 (1095)
Cipla                         501
Exide Industry          152
SBIN                       Trade not triggered
Axisbank                   190
Jswsteel                    (275)

Operation cost          (500)

Total profit             (1027) 

This is second day I am in loss. As per rule no trade next day. I will trade again on Monday. 

If I make loss on monday, I will take brake for 3 days . 

I set up this rule to keep myself motivated. This loss might happen because of aberration in market.

High probability trading set up for 3rd Oct

Economic activity and institutional traders activity which will have influence on 3rd Oct trading

3rd October is a pressure date for stock market and an impulsive movement can be observed in market.

There are mixed news for investors and traders. Manufacturing pace picked up and there is healthy GST collection. However, auto industry faced muted sales and overall core sector growth reduced.

For the month of October, all eyes will be on MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meet which will unveil its results on October 5. Most economists feel that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might raise interest rates by 25 bps. Apart from MPC meeting, investors will watch out for earnings from India Inc. for the quarter-ended September 30. [Source: Moneycontrol]

Fuel price is on rise and Rs. is depreciating against USD.

Government decision regarding management of  IL&FS might give some relief in redemption of mutual funds.

FII/DI status s on 1st Oct

FII net seller and DI net buyer. This is the repetition of same  of story for last few months. 

Technical analysis of nifty 

Astrological view of NSE trading for 3rd Oct

Astro phenomena is not showing  any clear trend. I expect between 130 pm to 230 pm there will be good movement in NBFC and private banks. Pharma shares might shows some trending moves as Mars is exalted at Capricon and Mars is in Aries in D9 chart where it is ruling.

As a disciplined trader, I found few possible good trades and will execute any three stocks based on technical set up in 5 min TF.

1. CIPLA
2. PEL
3. Gail
4. Havells
5. BataIndia
6. Concor             
7. BhartAirttel
8. Amujacement   

Post market update

All days are not equal. Today, I selected few good stocks but the result is not satisfactory

PEL                           749
Cipla                        (794)
Bharti Airtell            285

Brokerage                 (300)

Total profit    (60)

Total account balance 216967

Observations:

1. PEL closed early before it touched support 1. It could have gave me 1% profit
2. Cipla touched support 2 and I should have exited with 1% profit.
3. Bhartiairtel exited before it hits resistance 1 . This trade would have gave me 1% profit.

My exit rules are:

1. Stock hit SL
2. Stock hit support and resistance
3. Market changed direction in volatile way
4. Profit is 1%