trade set up for 1st October 2018

Last week Indian market is undergoing a shock therapy. Market again proved that September is a bearish month. Crude price, USD/INR, ASM , mutual fund rationalization contributes this correction. 

For the week, the Sensex erased 614 points, or 1.67 per cent and the Nifty50 213 points, or 1.91 per cent. For Nifty, it was the fifth consecutive week of loss as per ET 

However, reduction in lot size may compensate the impact of ASM.

As a trader my job is search for stocks which meets my criteria. Following stocks met my selection criteria.

1. APOLLOTYRE
2. BATAINDIA
3. BPCL
4. CIPLA
5. GAIL
6. ICICIBANK
7. IOC
8. LT
9. MOTHERSUMI
10. TATAGLOBAL
11. TATASTEEL
12. UPL

As per astrology, tomorrow moon star lord is MARS. Mars in Capricon along with Ketu where MARS is exalted.

At 915, it will be Libra ASC where lord of Libra  Venus is positioned along with Jupiter. After 9:52, ASC will  be Scopio where MARs is ruling. In D9 chart, MARs is in Aries where MARS in ruling.

My view market will be weak initially and post 930 it may bounce back. There might be  a bullish close tomorrow.

I will primarily focus on Cipla , UPL , BPCL and Apollotyre.

I'm planning to take nifty future trade and daily short straddle for BNF.

My trading on 1st October 2018

Stocks

UPL                                      1182
Apollotyre                            (441)
BPCL                                     602
Brokerage & commission    (300)

Total profit from stocks :      1043

BNF

Indian VIX reached 18. Premium of OTM options are high. I chose to  short  deep OTM options in both sides.

Profit from BNF:  1762

Overall profit for 1st October 2805

Total account value as on 1st October 2018  217027

Trade-setup-28092018

High probability stock trading set up  on 1st day of October series

Key points to consider for October series:

1. Major Global indexes are not  in red zone.

2. Tomorrow is first day post expiry 

3. In Nifty 50 , 31 stocks decline today and 19 stock advances

4. Nifty formed bearish candle today. 

Astrological view 

Market will have one way direction. Considering star lord is Venus and initial hora is moon, we might see a strong opening. 

Technical view

1. Market closed below 100 DMA. Market take support from 144 DMA 

2. As per option data , market range will be 10800 and 11200

I will be working on below stocks

1. Asian paints 

2. Tatasteel 

3. Mothersonsumi

4. Gail

Post market update

Market opened strongly as predicted from Astrological point of view. 

Placed AMO orders for all these 4 stocks. Three trades executed and Gail buy trade rejected due to non availability of margin.

Asian paints                  1068   [buy]
Tatasteel                        2585   [sell]
MothersonSumi              309    [sell]

Total profit from trades 3962
Actual realized profit  post deduction of brokerages and commissions  3650.

Total account value  214222  

Trade set up for 27092018

1st week of my challenge is over. I am making  a plan to trade and trade the plan.

My view technical set up can indicate high probability trade set up.  News can make this high probability trade set up into a Jackpot one. 

The main contributor in market randomness is views of market participants. I believe astrology specially KP astrology can help a trader in this area. I am learning applied astrology rules for better prediction .

Astrological view  

Tomorrow star lord in Ketu. Sun and Mars has 120 degree. 

Technical view

Being expiry day market might be volatile. 

I will focus on following stocks

1. Reliance

2. Gail

3. Auropharma

4. Axisbank

5. CESC

I traded Gail, Tatasteel, Axisbank. and Tatasteel.

All three trades ended in positive.

Gail             425
Tatasteel      280
Axisbank     411

Total profit post deduction of omission and brokerage 816

Account balance 210260

My trade plan for October expiry

1. Will do intraday and positional trading both

2. Will set up an iron condor for Nifty.  

3. Will set credit spread for banknifty.

Positions:

I took small positions in following counters
HDFCbank
VEDL 

Trade set up for 26092018

Astrological view

Day star lord mercury. Moon in Pisces (Airy sign) and in kishore awastha. Lord of Pisces is Jupiter. Moon.Mercury is in Virgo where is it ruling and exalted. mercury has seven aspect on Moon. 

It will be a bullish day. 

Technical view

There was very good recovery in Nifty in last one hour. Market is  not expecting any major bad news. 

I will watch on following scripts

1. Gail

2. LT

3. CESC

4. Tatasteel

5. Tatamotors

Post market update on trade

Market was bullish as foretasted. 

Today took three trades 

Tatasteel               (156)

CESC                   805

Cipla                    537

Brokerage            (300)

and others             

Total Profit      888 

Total Available balance after 7 th day is  Rs. 209444   

Trade set up for 25092018

Astrological view: 

Moon is with Saturn star. There might be a recovery post 2 PM tomorrow when moon will be in sublord of sun and Jupiter Hora.

Technical view

• Nifty formed bearish pattern and fall continue for 5 consecutive days. Will Nifty bull will be able to hold 10866, a key support level.

News :

• Crude MCX touched 5300. This is a warning signal to Indian economy. 
• Market will look for outcome of FOMC meeting 
• Uncertainty over liquidity crunch for NBFC bank. 
• HDFC one of the key components of Nifty 50, has investment with IL&FS 
• Farther 5000 CR bank fraud

I will observe following stocks for tomorrow. 

1. Tatasteel

2. Hindalco

3. ONGC

4. Axisbank

Market is very volatile so trading need to be reduced.

Post market update for 25092018

Market was very volatile. Traded Tatasteel and Voltas. Made total profit Rs. 650 post commission and brokerage.

Available balance 208556

Trade set up & execution post black Friday -24092018

This will be my second week as independent trader.

• Astrological view

1. 24th is a full moon day. market might form  a short term bottom and enter into a buy zone around 27th September
2. Moon has 3rd house aspect by Saturn and in "Mrita" awastha. Moon star is Jupiter . 
3. Market will be range bound as per my understanding. 

• Technical view

1. Nifty bounced back from 10866. This implies nifty has support at lower level. 

• Important factors with possible impact on market

1. Farther liquidation of bond by corporate
2. Resignation of IL&FS  MD
3. Funding issues of NBFC 
4. USD/INR and crude price 

Trade Plan

 1. NIFTY:  Intraday Sell  Nifty Oct 10800 October PE and  Nifty Oct 11600 CE . Will put SL double the premium received.  Will keep SL buy order for 11600 CE and 10600 PE.

2. Banknifty :  Intraday sell of 25000 PE and 26200 CE . Will place order @915 and will additional lots  @ 11 AM and 2 PM . Will put stop loss buy order at OTM.

3. Stocks 

Trade update post market hour:

Market behaved as per my expectation.

Only traded Tatasteel today and made a loss 1073.

Available balance 207906

Lesson Learned: Will track  two stocks for intraday trading. It is difficult to track more than two stocks. Will do in future once my competency level will increase. At present OMC , Metal and IT stocks are doing well so will concentrate on these stocks only.

Observation

Last week Bajaj Finance and Reliance capital trade successfully executed. I put SL ad target in those trade. Stocks went farther down after hitting target so I have profit gap.
Yesterday, I did not put target for Tatasteel. It was in good profit but did an U turn and converted the trade in losing trade.

1. Will continue to put target and check profit gap for 100 trades
2. Should I put target as .7% or 1 %
3. Should I consider the stocks which meet target are in trend

Black Friday trade journal

How I performed on black Friday?

What a day for a new trader!!

My view was volatile day with bullish bias. I was elated in 1st half by seeing trades are going in my direction but second half showed the actual drama. Nifty lost 3.2 % in this week. 

So,  how did I perform today. 

Axis bank buy                +2000

Reliance capital  buy       -3100 

Reliance capital sell       +7986

Gail sell                          +1090 

I put stop loss buy in DHFL not triggered. I was confident on positive movement so didn't put stoploss sell order. Did I protect capital or it's a big opportunity loss?

My current account status:

Opening balance:                         201503

Day's profit Profit                            7476

Total account balance                 208979

Lesson learned from 1 st week of independent trading:

1. Follow trade plan. Will follow 1 ATR SL and will use cover order instead of BO

2. Astrological pattern showed possible  movement but I failed to identify direction. Need to analyse more. Is the moon in Raghu star the reason for such a fall during cancer ascendant? Did Gail perform well while moon in Ketu sub lord?

I found a great astrological analysis by Mr. Attri on cause for banknifty crash on 21st Sp 2018. There is another brilliant analysis by Mr. Brahmesh on "What Caused Huge sell-off and panic in the Stock Market yesterday?"

trade set up- 21092018

Trade  plan for 21902019

Factors  I am considering for tomorrow's trade setup.

1. 21st Sep is Gan turn date
2. 25th September is full moon day
3. Sun mercury conjunction
4. Moon is in capricon at 19.61 degree which is its detrimental sign and moon avastha is kishore
5. Moon is in Raghu star and sublord is mercury.
6. Sun and mercury is in conjunct.

In summary, my view is market will be volatile with upward bias. 

Overall I expect the day will be volatile. As per astrology, banking, financials and real estate companies should be bullish . Metals and Auto sectors might be bearish. 

I selected 1 hour ATR as stoploss for intraday trading.

I will place cover order instead of BO.  Zerodha creates multiple orders for a BO order.

I have bullish view for Reliance capital and Axisbank. Gail may be range bound to bearish.

I will also check DHFL tomorrow morning as this stock id due for a large move. I am planning to focus on Oil Marketing companies like IOC, BPCL.

Will continue to hold HDFC bank.  Will slowly acquire the stock if profit booking continues. This is one of the most valued company and I believe average down will be profitable.

Will start trading covered call with Nifty future from October series. I will continue this challenge for six month to establish a realistic expectation from market. I will use sharekhan portal for this trading.

Tradejournal-19092018

How did my trade set up perform today? 

Yesterday, I did analysis based on technical and astronomical set up. 

Gail, HDFC bank and Bajaj finance has good movement. No movement in DHFL . Slow long covering is going on Hexaware.  I am happy with my trade selection.

I successfully executed my trades today though tempted to exit few times. 

Today's intraday  profit 

Bajaj Finance  2000

Hexaware          200

Trading account balance 201503 [ post all brokerage and taxes]

HDFC bank crossed below 200 MA after 20 months. I am planning to build up position in HDFC bank slowly so that I can sell call options to earn rental income from this script. Will accumulate more stocks once HDFC bank closes below 1950 , 1900. 

Will update once PnL report updated at Zerodha.

I would like to thanks all people who helped me to learn this wonderful profession in last couple of months. I will share a post on my learning journey, my mentors  tomorrow.

My goal is become a professional trader and investor. 

Tradesetup-19092018

Trump administration agreed for trade talk with China. This is a temporary relief to global stock market. 

Tomorrow, star lord is Venus and day lord is Mercury. Ascendant for NSE is Libra  at 915 AM. Mercury is entering Virgo where it is ruling and exalted. 

I expect market to be flat and bearish till 10:30 AM and market might recover during mercury Hora in second half. 

I will focus on private bank, IT industry and gas based on tomorrow's planetary position.

Trade rule is Rs.20000 will be allocated to each trade and maximum allowed trading loss is 5000 per trade.  I will be a fearless mechanical trader.

I will track following stocks for creating position. 

Click the link to know my  trade rules .

Tradejournal-18092018

I completed second day as independent trader.

It is a mix day. One intraday trade was in profit and other one in loss. Took small position in HDFC bank.

Here is the result of 3 trades.

My total profit gap for Reliance capital is around 4000. I would have got this money if I followed my rules.

Taking trade is important and keep it as per plan is more important.

Total income for 18th September after brokerage, commission and taxes 18.

Account status for intra day trading

Trade setup for 18092018

Trade set up for 18th Sep depends on following parameters:

1. USD INR rate

2. Crude price 

3. FII and DII cash flow for 17th September

4. Advance Decline of 17th September

5. Chang in strike wise option and PCR for various scripts

6. Asia and Europe market

I will follow the below trade set up for day trading:

• Total investment                200000
• Max amount  per stock 20000
• Maxloss in a day                 15000
• Number of trades                        3
• Max loss per trade                5000

Trade rules

1. All orders will be BO order of Zerodha
2. Trades will be closed based on Target hit, SL hit or auto close by broker at 3:20 PM

Trade set up for 18th Sep 2018

My view to market is consolidation. Astrological view for NSE at 915 is bearish. I will trade in a hora favorable to me. 

Trade journal -17092018

Hurrah!!

Today is the first day when I did my first trading independently. 

A professional trader plans his trade before market opens. I did that yesterday. 

A professional trader trades based on confirmation. Based on market sentiment I decided to place sell order for all counters.

I expected a gap up movement but market opened with a high bearish tone. In this scenario, I waited for 15 minutes to understand the market. I changed my entry levels based on behavior of stocks this morning.

For a trader execution of the trade in the most important not the result. I placed the trade and check the result now i.e post 6 PM.

My sell order of 500 quantity of Reliance capital executed @411 which was the low of first 15 minutes. Trade closed at 3:20 and incurred total loss of Rs. 515. Total loss includes trade loss, brokerage, taxes and all other government charges. 

No other trades triggered today.

Why my trade went wrong?

Script had gap down so I could not place the trade @413 as planned.

Is this the real reason?

Should I do this analysis at all?

Can I prevent this loss?

Can I force market to follow my desire?

As a trader I have to remember that I do all analysis based on data point which are nothing but human emotions frozen in past. I can follow a high probability trade set up.

Actual reason for my loss

There were traders who aggressively placed sell orders on Reliance capital in morning and after some time another group of traders’ put counter buy orders in same counter which lead to pull back. At the end of the day, bears overpowered the bulls with a small amount. I have no control on this process.

I am a retail trader I can execute the trade and manage the maximum loss amount. I can put the trade as per my plan and rational. I expected price will go down farther from first 15 minute low and market did not behave as per my expectation. That’s all.

I am happy I able to close the day with a loss of Rs. 515 for an investment of around Rs. 20k.

Will publish my tomorrow’s trade plan in the night.

Initial capital: 200000

Current value: 199485

Tomorrow will be a new day. New hope. 

Let’s see how market rewards me tomorrow

Stock Trading Steps

Trade result for 17th September

It was May 2014, I was in MasiMara,Kenya  to watch crossing of animals across the Mara river. It was a one-week trip to recharge and rejuvenate myself away from the hustle and bustle of Mumbai.  Little, I knew this trip in Masai Mara will answer my long pending question – how can I maintain the similar life style post retirement.

I met with a young French couple in a night game drive. During the course of travel, I found these couple are globe trotter.  They are stock trader and follow “4 hour work week “ by Tim Ferris to achieve freedom from corporate life.

I studied various methods stock trading and did paper trading to understand the concept. This process of self-study  continued for  3 years. I attended two online training workshops.

I am ready for my first independent training. I decided to start my trading tomorrow 17th September just after my 53rd birthday.

My total capital 2,00,000 in Zerodha trading account. My target is to achieve 2 % return over my capital in 25 trading days.

Target amount in trading amount on 17th October is  2,04,000 

I will trade in cash on 3 stocks maximum in a day. I will limit INR 20000  for trading in one stock.
I will use Zerodha BO order with SL 1 %. Order will be closed with Target or SL or EOD.

My market view for 17th Sep’18 is positive because Nifty formed hammer candle on weekly chart and at the money call unwinding. As per technical and option chart, the possible range of Nifty will be between 11600 to 11300.

I selected 5 stocks to trade for tomorrow. Will trade on three stocks based on trigger.

I will place three orders between 9:30 AM  to 9:45 AM. Will see account only in evening post office  hours. In case, volatility increases SL need to be increased to accommodate large swing.  In that case, will do two trades instead of three trades.

1. Tatamotors

Quantity: 800
Buy above 270
Sell below 263
SL 3 points so max loss 2400

2. Hexaware

Quantity: 450
Buy above 468
Sell below 456
SL 5 points so max loss 2250

3. Reliance capital

Quantity: 500
Buy above 424
Sell below 413
SL 5 points so max loss 2500

4. LT

Quantity: 150
Buy above 1370
Sell below 1350
SL 20 points so max loss 3000

5.  Apollo tyre

Quantity: 500
Buy above 244
Sell below 232
SL 5 points so max loss 2500

My max loss will be around 7500 in three trades. I will set 2% as profit target for each trade.

If I make continuous loss for 25 days I will be out of business. I will be part of those 95% trader who lose capital in first 3 months. In actual market, emotion gets tested and that is the biggest challenge for a trader to have consistency.

Will share my rational behind selection of stocks, target and set of stop-loss in future posts if I survive more than 3 months.