bajfinance trading update for November

 I have traded Bafinance 100 quantity last week . 

Here is the trade result:

I blurred other columns as those expenses includes all equity trading in this period.

Plan for next week;

1. Increase position size 

2. I will take three trades one early morning 9:5 to 9:45, 11 AM - 1PM, 2PM to 2;45 PM

Bajfinance trade set up - 2/11/2020

Bajfinance  Astrotechnical Analysis - 2nd November'20

High of January'20 4923

Low  of May'20      1723

50% 3356 

Bajfinace closed below 50%  in October 

Price is near median of 10 days Donchian channel 

RSI(14)   48.35 

ADX 12.2

MACD D below zero line 

30th Oct High 3389 and low 3255

Bajfinance is consolidating in daily TF . It is forming lower high and higher low structure. Normally, brake out in any direction  can give a big movement. 

However OI analysis shows short build up.

Stock is trading close to 200 DEMA . If stock closes below 200  EMA with volume , stock can be shorted for a target 3170

ATR of Bajfinance is 100. 

Trade plan for 2nd Nov - Quick scalping of 10/12 points in 2 min TF. 

Scalping setup 

1 Will use Nimblr multi timeframe analysis for scalping. As long term trend is negative. Will short the Bajfinance future whenever CCI 8 in 5 min TF goes above 150. 

2. I will trade close to  refer 20 MA and 200 MA 

3. Will buy if 3 hour and 40 minute trend become positive together.

Important  Gann levels 

credit :Satevch

Trade initiation time base9d on NSE 15 bhavhart and my personal horoscope

9:30 AM to 9:55 AM     Scorpio ascendant 

11:21 PM to 12:21  PM    Capricorn ascendant

Astro time cycles 

9:33  AM   Sun-Jupiter 

1:47  PM    Sun-Saturn

5:30   PM   Sun-mercury

Should I Trade One Stock Daily To Make Living ?

I have decided to start a new experiment to trade one equity stock daily. I am starting this thread to check can I earn Rs. 2000 daily from stock market by trading one stock daily.

Trading Rules for daily trading of a single stock

Total account margin - 1 lakh 

Max trade risk : 5% of account balance i.e. 5k

Total Risk per day 10% 

Experiment will terminate if  loose 50% of my account.

Instrument : Bajfinance Future 

Lot size 250 

Margin required for one lot covered order - Rs. 50250

Fixed SL - Rs. 5000 i.e. 20 points  

( Fixed SL will be entered in system to avoid any sudden movement) 

SL will be moved to cost once trade earns at east 10 point. 

Brokerage and cost calculation at zerodha

For 20 point  SL, my account will be reduced by Rs. 5184 

Trading single lot in future is cheaper than trading in cash as margin requirement will be around 1 lakh and points to brake-even will be 1.73 

I will not use synthetic future as I am trading with single lot and intraday.

I will avoid options as sometimes squaring off options becomes difficult. 

Day 3 of 100 Days trading challenge

4th July trading challenge update

Nifty 

I am carrying forward below Nifty position . I expect volatility will increase due to budget session. Increase in volatility will compensate loss in time value as we are still in 1st week of contract.

NIFTY 25 Jul 2019 11900.0 CE     150
NIFTY 25 Jul 2019 12200.0 CE -225
NIFTY 25 Jul 2019 12400.0 CE   150

Option Greeks

Delta:    44
Vega:  334
Theta -157

Property of strategy

Total capital          3.2 lakh.
Maximum loss         18500
Maximum profit  unlimited
Brake even                12025


Exit plan Nifty spot 12400 or 3% of capital deployed  i.e. 9600  by 5th July

Adjustment

1. The position will require adjustment if Nifty spot is trading below 11900. Square off   12400 CE
2. If Nifty trades above 12200,  square off 12200 CE


Banknifty 

There is no open position

Profit in 4th July expiry trading 2435

Loss in 11 th July straddle  -3380

The loss attributes to followings

1. Not closing 11th July CE buy while closed CE short of 4th July.
2. Asymmetrical long straddle on expiry day


Crude oil 

Loss - 330


Equity  SIP

LT
BHEL
NCC
HUL
Titan
VIP industry

Lesson learned: There is subtle difference between trading as a business and speculation. This is most critical obstacle to become a consistent trader.

Some of you requested for the rational of my analysis and I will write a long post on that soon.

Click below link to read the details of 100 day challenge

Can I make living with short term swing trading ?

Day 2 of 100 day trading challenge

2nd July no trade as astrologically the day was not favorable for trading as per my horoscope.

Today also moon and Saturn is in opposition. will avoid trade from 12:30 PM to 1;30 PM as I am expecting high volatility in that duration.

Today 3rd July though trading is not recommended as per horoscope but will trade in small quantity as today star lord is Jupiter.

Trade plan for 3rd July 2019

Nifty 

Buy 11920 and target 11950
Sell 11880 and target 11850

Will buy call or put based on levels at 5 min time frame.

PnL = (-) 840

Position

Position carry forward .

Nifty 2 lots 11900CE long
Nifty 3 lots 12200 CE short
Nifty 2 lots 12400 CE long

I set his strategy as I am  expecting market will be bullish and volatility will be high.



Options Greek

Delta : 44, Vega : 421 , Decay :( -)  158

The position will loose below 12000.

Banknifty 

Buy 31300 and target  31400
Sell  31200 and target  31100

4th July 31500 CE long 7 lots
4th July 31600 CE  short 6 lots
11 th July 31800 CE short 1 lot

Banknifty position has positive delta. Shorted 11th July call to mitigate gap down opening. It would have been better to buy put than shorted call because increase in vega will hurt position and there is a high chance vega will increase as 5tth July is budget day.

Position current PnL is -1104

Crude 

Will trade with 5 minilots based on Gann levels suitable for Jupiter starlord day

bought 2 mega lots @3876 and closed at @3905. It gave me profit 4000.

Equity SIP for 3rd July

Ashok Leyland
M&M
Motherson Sumi
KEC Internationnal
KEI Inustry

booked al PSU banks shares.

Equity investment is based on swing trading concept by Mahesh Kausik


Click below link to read the details of 100 day challenge

Can I make living with short term swing trading ?

Day 1 of 100 day trading challenge

Nifty

If Nifty spot cross 11850 and trade their for 3 minutes, will buy 2 lots 4th July  11900 CE . I will place stop loss buy on day high for 4th July 11800 PE

Stoploss is 20 points in Nifty spot from entry

Banknifty

If Banknifty spot crosses 31300 and trade for 5 minutes, will buy 2 lots 31400 CE. Will place stop loss buy over day high for 31200 PE

Stoploss is 50 points in Nifty spot from entry

Crude

Crude buy 4 mini lots @ 4065 or @40193
Crude sell 4 mini lots  @ 40161

Risk 15 points and target 32 points

I will initiate all trades with SL, and move the stop loss to cost to avoid loss. In this way I can avoid loss in my account.

Monday SIP in equity

Bank

HDFC bank
ICICIBANK
SBI
Bank of India

NBFC

Bajaj Finance
HDFC
LT Finance

Around  1000 Rs will be invested in stock to buy. This investment is continuous process. Whenever, any stock has profit more than 4%  , the same will be squared off but investment will continue as per plan.

Today's trade 

Nifty, Banknifty and crude all triggered and closed in green

Profit for Day 1  is 3663

My broker trades based on my plan. I do not see life market - a lesson from Ed Seykota. 

Click below link to read the details of 100 day challenge

Can I make living with short term swing trading ?

Can I Make A living By Day Trading?

I was wondering how do I manage my life style post retirement as I will reach the winter of my professional life. Initially, it was just a thought but increasing cost of living and unplanned expenses in Mumbai made me think seriously for last one year or so.

Biggest flaw in my personal financial management

I depend on endowment plan  f life insurance, PPF and fixed deposit with a very small exposure to equity market through mutual fund.

Fallacy of investment world

The biggest fallacy is return from all investment including rental income from property is negative with respect to actual inflation. This means I need to add fund to my account s that fund stays till the lifetime of my self and wife.

The only solution is to have some positive cash-flow to adjust against the dent created by inflation.

I found trading and investment is the only method which has highest probability to  achieve my goal which is totally flexible on time and effort. Here, I can earn based on my capability, experience and psychology.

Why day trading?

I can trade in the active market on equity and commodity. But,trading is a risky venture and 90% people do not make consistent profit from trading.

Plan to manage day trading as business

All business needs investment and loss is one of the possible outcome. My plan is to consider trading as a business where my losses will be considered as investment  to self learning to become a better trader.

• I will make a plan before market opening and trade the same plan. 
• I will trade with predefined risk per trade. Risk is the only entity which I decide  risk in this business.
• I will work with  a minimum risk to reward ratio
• My winning probability should be within 65% to 72%.

I will trade on selected 3 instruments (Nifty, Banknifty and crude oil) based on my research and back test result. I prepared a simple trade plan for these instruments . I will also set up a SIP based investment plan in direct equity market for long term wealth building.

I will take 100 trades on each instrument starting from 1st July 2019. I will build and share my trade plan in my blog daily. Will update trade result post market hour.

If I do  not make loss in these 100 trades,  i will just double my deployed capital.

Target -  6% to 8% per month post all expenses.

Will it be possible that I will loose all money by wrong trading? 

This is the first question my wife asked me. She believes I  might lose money in order to protect some loss due to inflation. Her concern is genuine .

We discussed and  decided to  make some effort to see feasibility of my idea. We agreed to set up a training budget and opened two accounts for trading.

I studied for several months, spends money in learning from some so called experts and did some trading. I will share with you the details of my training and those are just of money.

Tools to be used

• Gann sq9 calculator
• Daily Panchang  for NSE 

Indicators

• 20 period moving average for three time frame
• RSI 14

Stay tune to know my live trading experience.

Click the link below  to know trade plan for 1 st July'19 and how I mange my trade in a total hands free mode.

Day 1 of 100 day challenge

Day 2 of 100 day challenge 

Day 3 of 100 day challenge 

stocks to watch on 18th Dec

Tomorrow is a pressure date for market as per astronomy and election result. I expect a huge volatile day.

I expect good movements in below stocks. Please do not trade on these stocks based on my post.

1. Hindalco 

Possible NR4 breakout. 200 MA and 50 MA  @230 is a strong resistance.

Buy:223
Sell:215

2. ACC

Strong MA resistance 1460 to 1480
Sell  1420

3. Hindustan Unilver 

Sell 1804

4. LT  

10 MA resistance 1414,
Buy 1414
Sell 1372

5. Axis bank 

Price action indicates a strong breakout possible

50 MA support     598
10 MA resistance  621

Buy
Sell 592
Buy 610.2

How to do we planning  trading for Hinndalco intarday

Hindalco

Sell 215
SL 223
Target 208

Nature of trade : High probable trade
Trade duration : Intraday
Total capital 5 lakh
Total risk for 10th Dec : 1 % of 500000 i.e. 5000
Number of trades : 2
Risk per trade : 2500


Number of shares to be sold = 312
Margin required 4000
Total value 67000

Trade decisions : 

If sell trade is favorable, will book 100 shares at 213 , 300 shares at 211 and 100 shares at 208 . Will do partial profit as sell position can not be carried over.

Estimated profit for sell = 2100

For buy trade , target will be 8 points. Will keep the buy trade for two days.

Price Tine Square of Nifty On Important Astronomical Dates

Nifty perfectly followed Gann Price time square. Nifty showed great momentum on 5th , 12th and 20th November  where price time squaring  happened.

Nifty honored all critical price levels during its upward journey as published on Nifty trading idea

10431

10483

10535

10587

10639

10691

10743

10795

10847

Now, possible support levels for Nifty are

11694

11642

11590

11538

11486

11434

11382

Nifty option suggests support at 10500 and resistance at 10800

My trade plan for tomorrow ( 20th Nov 2018)  1st half based on technical

1.  If Nifty goes below 10640, will short nifty with initial target 10600.

2.  If Nifty cross above 10743,  will go long for initial target 10795

I will create spread in second half  considering weekend.

Astrological view 

Tomorrow Ketu star day. Moon sublord is Jupiter till 111:22 and Saturn will be sublord till 3 PM.  Jupiter and Mars formed a negative aspect which statistically indicates a strong bearish tone.  Moon is also in "kishore Aswastha"
As per my understanding , astrological position does not support strong positive movement.

Gann Price Time square calculation based previous range and duration

• 10774  high on 19th Nov 2018
• 10030 low on  26th Oct 2018

Possible dates                               Possible Prices

20-11-2018                                    10671
23-11-2018                                    10568
28-11-2018                                    10466
05-12-2018                                    10364       
14-12-2018                                    10262


Nifty low was 10562 on 21st Nov

Stock trade plan for the week of 16th November 2018

Review of  last week Nifty performance 

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Post market update:

1. Nifty opened in a positive note

2. Nifty witnessed profit booking after  solid opening

3. Nifty movement picked up around 245 PM while ASC was Pisces as mentioned in this article yesterday.

4. Nifty touched 200 DMA and closed at 10764. Nifty gives a good movement on a day when price and time squared. 

I exited all my positions in Nifty. Will enter once today's high (10774) or low (10688) will brake on closing basis.

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Nifty gave good swing n 5th and 12th November. Nifty made low 10464 on 12th November whereas 10460 was a resistance as mentioned on 9th November.

Even volatility based calculation was showing probability of reaching 10700 was 35 % .

We able to capture Nifty movement based on Gann astrotrading methods.

Let us analyse possible Nifty movement for next week

1. Based on implied volatility Nifty has 32 % chance to touch 10800 and 17%  chance to hit 10500.
2. Next  price time square date is 20th November  and  possible target is around 10750  or 200 DMA.
3. 10740 zone will be a supply zone for Nifty. This a strong resistance of 50 DMA and 100 DMA

News which are supporting bullish sentiment in market

There are few good news  for capital market as crude price  cracked , USD INR return to 71/72 level which gives psychological comfort to FII/FPI, Domestic investors are still believing "Mutual Fund Sahi Hy" as they have invested huge cash with various MFs.

My technical view for Nifty  is positive for 19th November.

Astrological view of market

Saturn is star lord for 19th November

Asc for Nifty  is Sagittarius. Jupiter is lord of Sagittarius. Saturn is placed in Sagittarius.

Placement of other planets

• Sun mercury and Jupiter are in 12th house from Ascendant which is also the  house of expense. 
• Venus is at 11th house 
• Moon is placed at 4th house Pisces and it is Yuva awastha.   It is Jupiter house and has 5th aspect from Jupiter. Moon is at Saturn star. Overall moon is positive.
• Ketu is in second house which is not very positive.
• Mars is aspected by Saturn by its 3rd aspect 

Market might open strong but there might be some profit booking 

Around 11 AM Asc will be Ketu and some more profit booking will continue. This is will be a good buying opportunities.
Around 1 P.M Asc will be Capricon and mars will be in Asc.
Around 2:20 PM Pisces will be Asc.

We might witness  strong bullish sentiment in the market in second half.

Trade plan based Gann astro trading principle :

I will go long tomorrow with SL at 10640  for a   target 10750.

Shares with positive view

RIL. Bajaj finance, VEDL, Gail, Ibull Housing Finance

Shares might witness correction

Icicibank, Axisbank, Adani ports

Stock trade plan for 9th Nov

New year started with a positive not. 

As per price time square method of WD Gann possibles dates 5th Nov, 12th Nov and 20th Nov. Possible price targets are  10460, 10561, 10663

Niifty did met two price targets already. Nifty closed above 10561. Based on Gann Master Time Factor, Nifty should meet 3rd target 10663 by 9th or on 12th November. 

I will watch below stocks for 9th November  

Long : Axisbank, BPCL, Cipla and SBIN

Short  Tatamotor

My view market will witness profit booking next week 

Nifty on 5th November

This  will analyse probability of movement of Nifty from various point of views like political, astrological, astronomy ,  Gann price time square, volatility based movement and chart analysis.

Astrological 

Scorpio ascendant @915   to 950 - In scorpio, Mars is ruing and Ketu is exalted at Scorpio.  Mars
(29.4 degree) in Capricorn where it is exalted at 28 degree. Jupiter and mercury are in Scorpio where Jupiter got directional strength. Jupiter has 9th aspect on Rahu ( 120 degree aspect) so Rahu will have less negative impact on market. Sun and Venus is at Libra where Venus is ruling. Presence of venus will reduce "debiliated" impact of  sin at Libra.

Sagittarius  ascendant @915 to 1155 AM - Jupiter is ruling lord of Sagittarius.

Capricorn ascendant @1155 AM to 145 PM - Saturn is ruling.

Aquarius ascendant @145 PM to 322 PM - Saturn Ruling

Pisces ascendant @ 322PM 457 PM - Jupiter is ruling

Moon is at its own starlord. This condition moon is normally weak.

My view: Nifty will be strong in 1st two hours and will be weak in second half . It will be a high volatile day.

Political and news 

Statistics suggests that post midterm election,US market surges ahead. However, the situation might be tricky this year as sanction on Iran will impact Global economy adversely.

Volatility 

long build up noticed on Nifty and weekly upside target 10900 and downside target 10200

Gann Pricetime square

As per my last article on Nifty price time square, Nifty closed above 10460 and  close to next target 10561. We expect Nifty will complete next target 10663 on Monday morning before a corrective pull back on Monday.

Technical analysis

In weekly chart, Nifty took support on 100 w moving average and immediate resistance is 50 week moving average 10709.

Next price time square for Nifty

How to trade Nifty based Gann price time square?

Nifty completed price time square on last Friday as predicted by Gann calculation and astronomical calculation.

Let us check what should be the next possible range of Nifty

117151 3rd Sept  High
10030   26th Oct  Low

Based on price range possible dates where market will show impulsive movements

28-10-2018
30-10-2018
05-11-2018
12-11-2018
20-11-2018
14-12-2018
18-12-2018
30-12-2018
15-01-2019
04-02-2019
25-02-2019
19-03-2019

Nifty did face resistance at 10200 on 30th October . Today, Nifty showed strength and reached to next critical resistance level 10400 and closed at 10386.

Next critical resistance 10609 and support 10201

Nifty made an intermediate high 10701 on 17th Oct . Considering 10701 as recent high, and 10030 as recent low, Nifty completed  50%  pullback.  

Nifty need to close above 10701 to resume its upwards journey otherwise Nifty might slip below 10000.

Let us check how astronomy can help us to predict possible Nifty movement 

1st Nov , Thursday  market might be range bound to up 

2nd Nov, Friday might be a bearish day 

5th Nov, Monday might be a volatile and  bearish day 

I consulted Financial almanac by Tamilsandhi

What option chain reveals ?

Put writing happened at 10400, 10300 and 10200. However, put unwinding happened at 10500. We can infer market participants expects stable to bullish market for 1st November

What are the possible Gann price levels?

26 th October close price 10030 squared at 90 degree offset of 53 degree calendar days.

Based on last price time square future possible price ranges are

10258  At this price previous downtrend will over as per Gann rule
10359
10460
10561
10663

On 1st November Nifty spot closed at 10380. Hence, Nifty resumed its northward journey.

Long trade can be initiated with first target 10460 and stop loss 10359.  

My plan to trade nifty for Nov

sell 9600 put 10 lots
sell 11000 call 10 lots

Buy Nifty future  and stop loss buy ATM Nifty put. Hedge the position overnight not in business hours.

In future article, will discuss how astronomy can guide to improve the above  forecast of future price and time.

Does Nifty complete price time square?

W D Gann price time square is a critical calculation for trader. The key of the method, the calculation predicts possible reversal based on previous range and significant high and low.

Key important parameters 

Significant low  9952 made on 23rd February 2018
Significant high  11157 made on 3rd September 2018

Price range                       1799
Trading days elapsed           36
Calendar days elapsed         55

Price time square calculation can be accomplished in several ways.

I am discussing three simple methods here.

1. Find the price window using Gann square nine calculator and time window based on previous price range . The basis of this calculation is price = time * time 

Next possible PT square happen on

16-10-2018    Price closed near Gann static level and market witnessed great movement next  day
28-11-2018
10-01-2019

2. Price must reach a significant static Gann level on  natural square dates like 1, 4th, 25th , 36th and so on from 3rd September 2018.

19-09-2018      PT square happened as price closed vert near to 11237.  Market witnessed a volatile
                         movement next day

22-10-2018       Nifty witnessed  volatile movement but no trend change happen


3. Converting price and range to degree and find the closest match

 Nifty closed at 10030 . Degree equivalent of 10030 is 161 which squared with previous time range in calendar days i.e. 164 days.

If there is reversal, downtrend will continue . Following price levels might work as support 10001  9951 , 9901 , 9851  , 9851  , 9801 and major resistance will be 10201.

In next article , I will discuss on astronomical calculation for possible price time square.

Monthly income pan update -26102018

Today Nifty formed a bearish candle and heading towards 9950 support. Gann followers predicting low near 9826 on 29th October. This is 10 year cycle completion from last crash.

Please follow my trade journal to know why 29th October is so important.

Market reached to a bottom around 930 AM and I need to adjust my position to increase my profitability and reduce option long position to avoid weekend theta decay.

Click the link to know more on my monthly income plan using option trading

Update after 26th Oct market closure: Some legs covered today that resulted a profit  of 4200.

My view about Nifty 

Business cycle follow movement of moon north node. Moon north node is now in cancer. Based on past market behavior it indicates long term bear trend.

Nifty is already below its 200 MA

As an option trader, I follow weekly cycle and nifty just took support on 100 week moving average. Next support will be 200 week morning average.  

Current positions

Long  Nifty Dec   10000 PE     600
Long  Nifty Dec   9000   PE       75
Short  Nifty Nov  10200 CE       75
Short  Nifty Nov    9500 PE    1275
Nifty Future long

Greeks

Delta   15
Theta   1868
Vega    -1635
Gamma  -0.35

Theta/Vega = 1.15

Negative Gama will be profit if Nifty's southward journey.

Estimated PnL on expiry day 

With current volatility

9360     88000
9500    200000
10100   88000


Market view for 29th October : Market my witness gap up or gap down because day star is Rahu. Technically, emotion is very bearish.

RSI shows market is oversold so a  pull back to Fibo level 10600 is possible.

Adjustments:

• If market is going up, will add  Nifty long , square off 10200 CE
• If market is going down, square off 9800 PE and sell more call 

My target is to earn 8000 from this position and 4000 already credited. I expect I will meet the target on Monday itself.

Nifty view for November

My friend Bramesh published a thoughtful analysis on Nifty based on astrological events.

Monthly income plan for Nov expiry

When theory meets with practical - option strategy

I am working on a multi legged option strategy for November 2018. This is an experimental set up. I want  to experiment greek behaviors with time, volatility and news. I intentionally did not use any proven strategy like iron condor, Asymmetric iron condor. 

This is first time I deployed and managing  an option strategy. I am referring  Quantsapp for my position  Greeks .

Philosophy of this strategy:

1. Create a put calendar spread around 10000 PE. This is a low probability set up as this combination gives maximum profit around 10000 only. To convert the same to high probability set up, sold 10400 CE

2. Global equity market is in downtrend and trading below 200 DMA. So I have created a vertical spread with 9800 PE and 9500 CE.

3. I make one NF long to reduce overall negative delta of the position.

Strikewise position detail

Nifty Future long                     1 lot
Nifty Nov 9800 PE long          8 lot
Nifty Nov 9500 PE short         8 lot
Nifty Nov 10400  CE short     4 lot
Nifty Nov 10000 PE short       7 lot
Nifty Dec 10000 PE  long       5 lot


Greek values as per Quantsapp.

Delta       -69
Theta     1200.2
Vega        1504
Gamma  -0.21

Margin used

12 lakh and margin benefits 1.4 lakh

Expected return for next  8 days

Nifty      Estimated Return

9500            3400
9800          26100
10040        26500
10200        18000
10310        11340
10400          2000

Nifty spot is at 10124 on 25th Oct 2018 and today's Profit   ( -2500)


If I have out this money in bank , I would have got 5000 interest  per month post income tax  from the same capital. I need to target 10000 per month considering the risk involve in the strategy.

My target is to earn Rs. 8000 from this strategy in first month. My annual target is to double the capital by Dec 2020 using FnO strategy.

Adjustment 

1. Will convert this strategy a delta  neutral strategy tomorrow by adding another Nifty future. 
2.  Will do adjustment once nifty spot closed below 9800 or above 
3. Will maintain theta to vega ratio >40  
4. Will maintain gamma near zero or little positive
5. Will book loss if premium of short position gets doubled 
6. Will book profit in short position  if 50 % credit realized.
7. Will exit if position loss reach 10,000

Exit rules 

1. Will exit once the strategy earns 8000
2. Will exit 26th November  to avoid Gamma risk & quick theta decay for long positions in expiry week
3. Will exit if strategy takes more than 13 lakh margin

Update on my monthly income plan  on 26th Oct

Trade plan for 24-10-2018

How I am planning to trade in November expiry?

I will consider followings macro economic conditions to understand the probability of more deep correction.

1. GDP growth of India
2. Inflation
3. Rating by external agency
4. USD INR rate
5. Company performance of Q2
6. Forthcoming elections

My exiting NF & BNF trade will continue tomorrow.

I will look for long opportunity inn Nifty and Reliance.

trade performance for 23 rd Oct 2018

I am working on myself to shield myself from the common saying that  "Investors tend to sell winning investments while holding on to their losing investments". Trading in a falling market is really scary.

I accumulated Ibull Housing stock fr last few days and finally I exited with mo profit no loss condition. It is very difficult to trade in a volatile market for a new trader like me.

An interesting video from  Mr.  Nitin Bhatia on Nifty correction


Three good things happened in last two weeks

1. I completed my simple program in excel to get buy and sell signal based on EOD data. This model is based  candle stick reversal pattern along with 10, 50 and 200 MA. I am working to include IV, HV and open interest to make the program more robust.

2. I completed a simple back test software and this program helps to evaluate various modifications of my program

3. I attended Quantsapp option symposium.  I learned various nuances of option selling.

I will resume stock trading post expiry this month.

What wheels in the sky is telling  for tomorrow?

Tomorrow full moon.  Indian market can be bottomed out tomorrow. 

Nifty position 

My current deployed option strategy has a Created range from 9800 to 10400
Theta to Vega ratio 40

Possible adjustment, if Nifty brakes 10000 level, will move 10000 PE to 9500 PE as this might trigger a bigger fall.

Nifty buy 10175 and target 10225, Nifty sell 10115 to 10080 

Banknifty position 

My strategy of vertical spread week option is giving me good result. I set up a risky strategy for tomorrow where I sold two 24500 PE and bought only one 24500 put for next week.

Banknifty buy 25052  and   sell 24900 , target 100 point and SL 100 point

Stocks where some actions might happen on 24th Oct : Reliance, CanBank, ONGC based on chart.

I set up a vertical spread for Reliance expecting a quick recovery of 50 odd points  as short covering before and immediately after expiry.

Trade journal for 19th Oct

Indian market is in tight bear grip. It reminds me of 19th October 1987.  Some brokers are seeing the ghost of 29th October 1929.

And, why not ?

The foretasted dates of WD Gann  in 1929 has close similarity with Nifty performance in 2018.  This also coincides with 90 years  cycle.

source: internet

This is a challenging time for stock investors and arguably fertile time for shorting futures. I expect market will give up move once PCR goes in .08 to ,06 range. Though the increase of IV and HV together in last two days indicates more fear in market.

I set up NF strategy considering a small bullish movement in early next week.

Positional stock trading:

I am  buying Nifty shares slowly fr each drop of 50 to 100 points.

Nifty

Sold 9800 PE for Nov and bought 9500 Nov put.
Sold 10500 CE and bought 10700 CE

Position greeks

delta       16
Vega    1579
Theta    -384
Gamma  .06

Will buy NF above 10334 and sell below 10273. Target 40 points with 2 lots.


Banknifty 

Bought 25000PE
Sold  2*24500 PE

Maxpain for BNF 25200

maximum put unwind happen from 25000 and still OI is around 690 k.
750 K is maximum OI  is at 24500

upside brake even 24950  so will buy intraday future above 25155

My stock trading performance in last 4 weeks and plan ahead

I completed my first month stock trading as an independent trader. 

Good news is I made profit.I started this challenge with 200K INR with a target to earn 4000 INR post all operational expenses.

My current equity is 223243 

This is indeed a motivating performance as I achieved in a  most challenging time while INR is depreciating fast, crude price is moving north, US-China trade war is getting more intense, possible US sanction on India for dealing with Russia for arms, growing political unrest in India.

My plan for next month

1. BNF option trading with daily target 1000

2. Using Jeep option strategy to earn  2% per month.

3. Building a portfolio with top 10 companies on Nifty and accumulating 5 high dividend yielding stocks.

My trade rules

Banknifty is very volatile now. I will short OTM call and put with almost equal premium.
'
Entry rule -  Based on current option chain, my plan is to short 24000 PE and 25900 CE. I will get around 120 Rs premium.

Exit rule:

1. Will exit if premium is is more than 110% in any side. Will put tight SL on otherside.
2.  Will exit if combo gets 20% of total premium received.
3. Will exit at 3 PM

Total margin required : 130000 at my brokers platform

Total brokerage           : 100

Premium received       : 4340

Target profit                : 700 to 1000

This is a risky strategy so SL need to be placed to protect capital.


Nifty :  Will deploy vertical put spread

 My current  position is with multiple lots

Buy 9600 PE of November
Sell 10200 PE of November
Buy 10000 PE o November

current profit 6503

Current Greek of the strategy :
Delta  -14
Theata  -411
Gamma   .008
Vega   2091

This strategy will do well for quick downward movement.

Performance of the strategy

Downward adjustment :

10400  , close one short put and sell a new put at 9800
at 10300 , close 50% of 10200 short put and add at 9800
At 10200 , will buy 9500 put

Upside adjustment 

will buy one lot NF future once NS  moves above 10480 and stays there for 15 min


Nifty  is in clear downtrend as it is forming lower highs and lower lows and volatility will remain high.

Stocks for 19th Oct

Short term swing trading:

• TechM   
• Adaniport
• Torrentpower
• KPIT

Positional 

Will accumulate HDFC, HDFC bank, India bull housing finance, Infosys, TCS  and Reliance industry for fall of 1 ATR