Day 3 of 100 Days trading challenge

4th July trading challenge update

Nifty 

I am carrying forward below Nifty position . I expect volatility will increase due to budget session. Increase in volatility will compensate loss in time value as we are still in 1st week of contract.

NIFTY 25 Jul 2019 11900.0 CE     150
NIFTY 25 Jul 2019 12200.0 CE -225
NIFTY 25 Jul 2019 12400.0 CE   150

Option Greeks

Delta:    44
Vega:  334
Theta -157

Property of strategy

Total capital          3.2 lakh.
Maximum loss         18500
Maximum profit  unlimited
Brake even                12025


Exit plan Nifty spot 12400 or 3% of capital deployed  i.e. 9600  by 5th July

Adjustment

1. The position will require adjustment if Nifty spot is trading below 11900. Square off   12400 CE
2. If Nifty trades above 12200,  square off 12200 CE


Banknifty 

There is no open position

Profit in 4th July expiry trading 2435

Loss in 11 th July straddle  -3380

The loss attributes to followings

1. Not closing 11th July CE buy while closed CE short of 4th July.
2. Asymmetrical long straddle on expiry day


Crude oil 

Loss - 330


Equity  SIP

LT
BHEL
NCC
HUL
Titan
VIP industry

Lesson learned: There is subtle difference between trading as a business and speculation. This is most critical obstacle to become a consistent trader.

Some of you requested for the rational of my analysis and I will write a long post on that soon.

Click below link to read the details of 100 day challenge

Can I make living with short term swing trading ?

Day 2 of 100 day trading challenge

2nd July no trade as astrologically the day was not favorable for trading as per my horoscope.

Today also moon and Saturn is in opposition. will avoid trade from 12:30 PM to 1;30 PM as I am expecting high volatility in that duration.

Today 3rd July though trading is not recommended as per horoscope but will trade in small quantity as today star lord is Jupiter.

Trade plan for 3rd July 2019

Nifty 

Buy 11920 and target 11950
Sell 11880 and target 11850

Will buy call or put based on levels at 5 min time frame.

PnL = (-) 840

Position

Position carry forward .

Nifty 2 lots 11900CE long
Nifty 3 lots 12200 CE short
Nifty 2 lots 12400 CE long

I set his strategy as I am  expecting market will be bullish and volatility will be high.



Options Greek

Delta : 44, Vega : 421 , Decay :( -)  158

The position will loose below 12000.

Banknifty 

Buy 31300 and target  31400
Sell  31200 and target  31100

4th July 31500 CE long 7 lots
4th July 31600 CE  short 6 lots
11 th July 31800 CE short 1 lot

Banknifty position has positive delta. Shorted 11th July call to mitigate gap down opening. It would have been better to buy put than shorted call because increase in vega will hurt position and there is a high chance vega will increase as 5tth July is budget day.

Position current PnL is -1104

Crude 

Will trade with 5 minilots based on Gann levels suitable for Jupiter starlord day

bought 2 mega lots @3876 and closed at @3905. It gave me profit 4000.

Equity SIP for 3rd July

Ashok Leyland
M&M
Motherson Sumi
KEC Internationnal
KEI Inustry

booked al PSU banks shares.

Equity investment is based on swing trading concept by Mahesh Kausik


Click below link to read the details of 100 day challenge

Can I make living with short term swing trading ?

Day 1 of 100 day trading challenge

Nifty

If Nifty spot cross 11850 and trade their for 3 minutes, will buy 2 lots 4th July  11900 CE . I will place stop loss buy on day high for 4th July 11800 PE

Stoploss is 20 points in Nifty spot from entry

Banknifty

If Banknifty spot crosses 31300 and trade for 5 minutes, will buy 2 lots 31400 CE. Will place stop loss buy over day high for 31200 PE

Stoploss is 50 points in Nifty spot from entry

Crude

Crude buy 4 mini lots @ 4065 or @40193
Crude sell 4 mini lots  @ 40161

Risk 15 points and target 32 points

I will initiate all trades with SL, and move the stop loss to cost to avoid loss. In this way I can avoid loss in my account.

Monday SIP in equity

Bank

HDFC bank
ICICIBANK
SBI
Bank of India

NBFC

Bajaj Finance
HDFC
LT Finance

Around  1000 Rs will be invested in stock to buy. This investment is continuous process. Whenever, any stock has profit more than 4%  , the same will be squared off but investment will continue as per plan.

Today's trade 

Nifty, Banknifty and crude all triggered and closed in green

Profit for Day 1  is 3663

My broker trades based on my plan. I do not see life market - a lesson from Ed Seykota. 

Click below link to read the details of 100 day challenge

Can I make living with short term swing trading ?

Can I Make A living By Day Trading?

I was wondering how do I manage my life style post retirement as I will reach the winter of my professional life. Initially, it was just a thought but increasing cost of living and unplanned expenses in Mumbai made me think seriously for last one year or so.

Biggest flaw in my personal financial management

I depend on endowment plan  f life insurance, PPF and fixed deposit with a very small exposure to equity market through mutual fund.

Fallacy of investment world

The biggest fallacy is return from all investment including rental income from property is negative with respect to actual inflation. This means I need to add fund to my account s that fund stays till the lifetime of my self and wife.

The only solution is to have some positive cash-flow to adjust against the dent created by inflation.

I found trading and investment is the only method which has highest probability to  achieve my goal which is totally flexible on time and effort. Here, I can earn based on my capability, experience and psychology.

Why day trading?

I can trade in the active market on equity and commodity. But,trading is a risky venture and 90% people do not make consistent profit from trading.

Plan to manage day trading as business

All business needs investment and loss is one of the possible outcome. My plan is to consider trading as a business where my losses will be considered as investment  to self learning to become a better trader.

• I will make a plan before market opening and trade the same plan. 
• I will trade with predefined risk per trade. Risk is the only entity which I decide  risk in this business.
• I will work with  a minimum risk to reward ratio
• My winning probability should be within 65% to 72%.

I will trade on selected 3 instruments (Nifty, Banknifty and crude oil) based on my research and back test result. I prepared a simple trade plan for these instruments . I will also set up a SIP based investment plan in direct equity market for long term wealth building.

I will take 100 trades on each instrument starting from 1st July 2019. I will build and share my trade plan in my blog daily. Will update trade result post market hour.

If I do  not make loss in these 100 trades,  i will just double my deployed capital.

Target -  6% to 8% per month post all expenses.

Will it be possible that I will loose all money by wrong trading? 

This is the first question my wife asked me. She believes I  might lose money in order to protect some loss due to inflation. Her concern is genuine .

We discussed and  decided to  make some effort to see feasibility of my idea. We agreed to set up a training budget and opened two accounts for trading.

I studied for several months, spends money in learning from some so called experts and did some trading. I will share with you the details of my training and those are just of money.

Tools to be used

• Gann sq9 calculator
• Daily Panchang  for NSE 

Indicators

• 20 period moving average for three time frame
• RSI 14

Stay tune to know my live trading experience.

Click the link below  to know trade plan for 1 st July'19 and how I mange my trade in a total hands free mode.

Day 1 of 100 day challenge

Day 2 of 100 day challenge 

Day 3 of 100 day challenge 

stocks to watch on 18th Dec

Tomorrow is a pressure date for market as per astronomy and election result. I expect a huge volatile day.

I expect good movements in below stocks. Please do not trade on these stocks based on my post.

1. Hindalco 

Possible NR4 breakout. 200 MA and 50 MA  @230 is a strong resistance.

Buy:223
Sell:215

2. ACC

Strong MA resistance 1460 to 1480
Sell  1420

3. Hindustan Unilver 

Sell 1804

4. LT  

10 MA resistance 1414,
Buy 1414
Sell 1372

5. Axis bank 

Price action indicates a strong breakout possible

50 MA support     598
10 MA resistance  621

Buy
Sell 592
Buy 610.2

How to do we planning  trading for Hinndalco intarday

Hindalco

Sell 215
SL 223
Target 208

Nature of trade : High probable trade
Trade duration : Intraday
Total capital 5 lakh
Total risk for 10th Dec : 1 % of 500000 i.e. 5000
Number of trades : 2
Risk per trade : 2500


Number of shares to be sold = 312
Margin required 4000
Total value 67000

Trade decisions : 

If sell trade is favorable, will book 100 shares at 213 , 300 shares at 211 and 100 shares at 208 . Will do partial profit as sell position can not be carried over.

Estimated profit for sell = 2100

For buy trade , target will be 8 points. Will keep the buy trade for two days.

Price Tine Square of Nifty On Important Astronomical Dates

Nifty perfectly followed Gann Price time square. Nifty showed great momentum on 5th , 12th and 20th November  where price time squaring  happened.

Nifty honored all critical price levels during its upward journey as published on Nifty trading idea

10431

10483

10535

10587

10639

10691

10743

10795

10847

Now, possible support levels for Nifty are

11694

11642

11590

11538

11486

11434

11382

Nifty option suggests support at 10500 and resistance at 10800

My trade plan for tomorrow ( 20th Nov 2018)  1st half based on technical

1.  If Nifty goes below 10640, will short nifty with initial target 10600.

2.  If Nifty cross above 10743,  will go long for initial target 10795

I will create spread in second half  considering weekend.

Astrological view 

Tomorrow Ketu star day. Moon sublord is Jupiter till 111:22 and Saturn will be sublord till 3 PM.  Jupiter and Mars formed a negative aspect which statistically indicates a strong bearish tone.  Moon is also in "kishore Aswastha"
As per my understanding , astrological position does not support strong positive movement.

Gann Price Time square calculation based previous range and duration

• 10774  high on 19th Nov 2018
• 10030 low on  26th Oct 2018

Possible dates                               Possible Prices

20-11-2018                                    10671
23-11-2018                                    10568
28-11-2018                                    10466
05-12-2018                                    10364       
14-12-2018                                    10262


Nifty low was 10562 on 21st Nov

Stock trade plan for the week of 16th November 2018

Review of  last week Nifty performance 

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Post market update:

1. Nifty opened in a positive note

2. Nifty witnessed profit booking after  solid opening

3. Nifty movement picked up around 245 PM while ASC was Pisces as mentioned in this article yesterday.

4. Nifty touched 200 DMA and closed at 10764. Nifty gives a good movement on a day when price and time squared. 

I exited all my positions in Nifty. Will enter once today's high (10774) or low (10688) will brake on closing basis.

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Nifty gave good swing n 5th and 12th November. Nifty made low 10464 on 12th November whereas 10460 was a resistance as mentioned on 9th November.

Even volatility based calculation was showing probability of reaching 10700 was 35 % .

We able to capture Nifty movement based on Gann astrotrading methods.

Let us analyse possible Nifty movement for next week

1. Based on implied volatility Nifty has 32 % chance to touch 10800 and 17%  chance to hit 10500.
2. Next  price time square date is 20th November  and  possible target is around 10750  or 200 DMA.
3. 10740 zone will be a supply zone for Nifty. This a strong resistance of 50 DMA and 100 DMA

News which are supporting bullish sentiment in market

There are few good news  for capital market as crude price  cracked , USD INR return to 71/72 level which gives psychological comfort to FII/FPI, Domestic investors are still believing "Mutual Fund Sahi Hy" as they have invested huge cash with various MFs.

My technical view for Nifty  is positive for 19th November.

Astrological view of market

Saturn is star lord for 19th November

Asc for Nifty  is Sagittarius. Jupiter is lord of Sagittarius. Saturn is placed in Sagittarius.

Placement of other planets

• Sun mercury and Jupiter are in 12th house from Ascendant which is also the  house of expense. 
• Venus is at 11th house 
• Moon is placed at 4th house Pisces and it is Yuva awastha.   It is Jupiter house and has 5th aspect from Jupiter. Moon is at Saturn star. Overall moon is positive.
• Ketu is in second house which is not very positive.
• Mars is aspected by Saturn by its 3rd aspect 

Market might open strong but there might be some profit booking 

Around 11 AM Asc will be Ketu and some more profit booking will continue. This is will be a good buying opportunities.
Around 1 P.M Asc will be Capricon and mars will be in Asc.
Around 2:20 PM Pisces will be Asc.

We might witness  strong bullish sentiment in the market in second half.

Trade plan based Gann astro trading principle :

I will go long tomorrow with SL at 10640  for a   target 10750.

Shares with positive view

RIL. Bajaj finance, VEDL, Gail, Ibull Housing Finance

Shares might witness correction

Icicibank, Axisbank, Adani ports