trade set up for 1st October 2018

Last week Indian market is undergoing a shock therapy. Market again proved that September is a bearish month. Crude price, USD/INR, ASM , mutual fund rationalization contributes this correction. 

For the week, the Sensex erased 614 points, or 1.67 per cent and the Nifty50 213 points, or 1.91 per cent. For Nifty, it was the fifth consecutive week of loss as per ET 

However, reduction in lot size may compensate the impact of ASM.

As a trader my job is search for stocks which meets my criteria. Following stocks met my selection criteria.

1. APOLLOTYRE
2. BATAINDIA
3. BPCL
4. CIPLA
5. GAIL
6. ICICIBANK
7. IOC
8. LT
9. MOTHERSUMI
10. TATAGLOBAL
11. TATASTEEL
12. UPL

As per astrology, tomorrow moon star lord is MARS. Mars in Capricon along with Ketu where MARS is exalted.

At 915, it will be Libra ASC where lord of Libra  Venus is positioned along with Jupiter. After 9:52, ASC will  be Scopio where MARs is ruling. In D9 chart, MARs is in Aries where MARS in ruling.

My view market will be weak initially and post 930 it may bounce back. There might be  a bullish close tomorrow.

I will primarily focus on Cipla , UPL , BPCL and Apollotyre.

I'm planning to take nifty future trade and daily short straddle for BNF.

My trading on 1st October 2018

Stocks

UPL                                      1182
Apollotyre                            (441)
BPCL                                     602
Brokerage & commission    (300)

Total profit from stocks :      1043

BNF

Indian VIX reached 18. Premium of OTM options are high. I chose to  short  deep OTM options in both sides.

Profit from BNF:  1762

Overall profit for 1st October 2805

Total account value as on 1st October 2018  217027

Trade-setup-28092018

High probability stock trading set up  on 1st day of October series

Key points to consider for October series:

1. Major Global indexes are not  in red zone.

2. Tomorrow is first day post expiry 

3. In Nifty 50 , 31 stocks decline today and 19 stock advances

4. Nifty formed bearish candle today. 

Astrological view 

Market will have one way direction. Considering star lord is Venus and initial hora is moon, we might see a strong opening. 

Technical view

1. Market closed below 100 DMA. Market take support from 144 DMA 

2. As per option data , market range will be 10800 and 11200

I will be working on below stocks

1. Asian paints 

2. Tatasteel 

3. Mothersonsumi

4. Gail

Post market update

Market opened strongly as predicted from Astrological point of view. 

Placed AMO orders for all these 4 stocks. Three trades executed and Gail buy trade rejected due to non availability of margin.

Asian paints                  1068   [buy]
Tatasteel                        2585   [sell]
MothersonSumi              309    [sell]

Total profit from trades 3962
Actual realized profit  post deduction of brokerages and commissions  3650.

Total account value  214222  

Trade set up for 27092018

1st week of my challenge is over. I am making  a plan to trade and trade the plan.

My view technical set up can indicate high probability trade set up.  News can make this high probability trade set up into a Jackpot one. 

The main contributor in market randomness is views of market participants. I believe astrology specially KP astrology can help a trader in this area. I am learning applied astrology rules for better prediction .

Astrological view  

Tomorrow star lord in Ketu. Sun and Mars has 120 degree. 

Technical view

Being expiry day market might be volatile. 

I will focus on following stocks

1. Reliance

2. Gail

3. Auropharma

4. Axisbank

5. CESC

I traded Gail, Tatasteel, Axisbank. and Tatasteel.

All three trades ended in positive.

Gail             425
Tatasteel      280
Axisbank     411

Total profit post deduction of omission and brokerage 816

Account balance 210260

My trade plan for October expiry

1. Will do intraday and positional trading both

2. Will set up an iron condor for Nifty.  

3. Will set credit spread for banknifty.

Positions:

I took small positions in following counters
HDFCbank
VEDL 

Trade set up for 26092018

Astrological view

Day star lord mercury. Moon in Pisces (Airy sign) and in kishore awastha. Lord of Pisces is Jupiter. Moon.Mercury is in Virgo where is it ruling and exalted. mercury has seven aspect on Moon. 

It will be a bullish day. 

Technical view

There was very good recovery in Nifty in last one hour. Market is  not expecting any major bad news. 

I will watch on following scripts

1. Gail

2. LT

3. CESC

4. Tatasteel

5. Tatamotors

Post market update on trade

Market was bullish as foretasted. 

Today took three trades 

Tatasteel               (156)

CESC                   805

Cipla                    537

Brokerage            (300)

and others             

Total Profit      888 

Total Available balance after 7 th day is  Rs. 209444   

Trade set up for 25092018

Astrological view: 

Moon is with Saturn star. There might be a recovery post 2 PM tomorrow when moon will be in sublord of sun and Jupiter Hora.

Technical view

• Nifty formed bearish pattern and fall continue for 5 consecutive days. Will Nifty bull will be able to hold 10866, a key support level.

News :

• Crude MCX touched 5300. This is a warning signal to Indian economy. 
• Market will look for outcome of FOMC meeting 
• Uncertainty over liquidity crunch for NBFC bank. 
• HDFC one of the key components of Nifty 50, has investment with IL&FS 
• Farther 5000 CR bank fraud

I will observe following stocks for tomorrow. 

1. Tatasteel

2. Hindalco

3. ONGC

4. Axisbank

Market is very volatile so trading need to be reduced.

Post market update for 25092018

Market was very volatile. Traded Tatasteel and Voltas. Made total profit Rs. 650 post commission and brokerage.

Available balance 208556

Trade set up & execution post black Friday -24092018

This will be my second week as independent trader.

• Astrological view

1. 24th is a full moon day. market might form  a short term bottom and enter into a buy zone around 27th September
2. Moon has 3rd house aspect by Saturn and in "Mrita" awastha. Moon star is Jupiter . 
3. Market will be range bound as per my understanding. 

• Technical view

1. Nifty bounced back from 10866. This implies nifty has support at lower level. 

• Important factors with possible impact on market

1. Farther liquidation of bond by corporate
2. Resignation of IL&FS  MD
3. Funding issues of NBFC 
4. USD/INR and crude price 

Trade Plan

 1. NIFTY:  Intraday Sell  Nifty Oct 10800 October PE and  Nifty Oct 11600 CE . Will put SL double the premium received.  Will keep SL buy order for 11600 CE and 10600 PE.

2. Banknifty :  Intraday sell of 25000 PE and 26200 CE . Will place order @915 and will additional lots  @ 11 AM and 2 PM . Will put stop loss buy order at OTM.

3. Stocks 

Trade update post market hour:

Market behaved as per my expectation.

Only traded Tatasteel today and made a loss 1073.

Available balance 207906

Lesson Learned: Will track  two stocks for intraday trading. It is difficult to track more than two stocks. Will do in future once my competency level will increase. At present OMC , Metal and IT stocks are doing well so will concentrate on these stocks only.

Observation

Last week Bajaj Finance and Reliance capital trade successfully executed. I put SL ad target in those trade. Stocks went farther down after hitting target so I have profit gap.
Yesterday, I did not put target for Tatasteel. It was in good profit but did an U turn and converted the trade in losing trade.

1. Will continue to put target and check profit gap for 100 trades
2. Should I put target as .7% or 1 %
3. Should I consider the stocks which meet target are in trend

Black Friday trade journal

How I performed on black Friday?

What a day for a new trader!!

My view was volatile day with bullish bias. I was elated in 1st half by seeing trades are going in my direction but second half showed the actual drama. Nifty lost 3.2 % in this week. 

So,  how did I perform today. 

Axis bank buy                +2000

Reliance capital  buy       -3100 

Reliance capital sell       +7986

Gail sell                          +1090 

I put stop loss buy in DHFL not triggered. I was confident on positive movement so didn't put stoploss sell order. Did I protect capital or it's a big opportunity loss?

My current account status:

Opening balance:                         201503

Day's profit Profit                            7476

Total account balance                 208979

Lesson learned from 1 st week of independent trading:

1. Follow trade plan. Will follow 1 ATR SL and will use cover order instead of BO

2. Astrological pattern showed possible  movement but I failed to identify direction. Need to analyse more. Is the moon in Raghu star the reason for such a fall during cancer ascendant? Did Gail perform well while moon in Ketu sub lord?

I found a great astrological analysis by Mr. Attri on cause for banknifty crash on 21st Sp 2018. There is another brilliant analysis by Mr. Brahmesh on "What Caused Huge sell-off and panic in the Stock Market yesterday?"